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Gamble
Take your chances with these guys. May pay off, or it may backfire. In other words, we're not offering any guarantees on these puppies.
Offense
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Sidney Crosby
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PIT
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The only question even worth considering at the top is "Can he stay healthy?" If you believe Crosby can make it through 65+ games this season, there is really no choice to be made. He is far and away the greatest player in the league. The ceiling is just too high to pass, even with the risk involved. No doubt, there is a huge risk here, as #87 has never played a complete 82 game season. Pick him first or second, 'cause he won't be around after that.
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Marian Gaborik
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COB
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Last season, Gaborik played 82 games and scored 41 goals. One of those numbers came as a huge surprise. Last season was the first time in his 11 year career that Gaborik played in every game. It was the third time he cracked the 40 goal plateau. His ability to produce for your fantasy team is completely tied to his health. Back to back healthy seasons? Seems like a lot to ask, particularly now that he's into his 30s. Still, even if you get 60 games from him, he's well worth the gamble.
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Sam Gagner
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EDM
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Five seasons in the books and every one saw Gagner finish with a point total in the 40's. This, despite dropping 1/4 of them in one game last season. Gagner will center the #2 line between Paajarvi and the rookie Yakupov, giving the Oilers two top lines made up entirelly of 1st round draft picks. The tide should lift Gagner to the next level.
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Ryan Getzlaf
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ANA
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Can you think of a bigger disappointment in the fantasy hockey world than Ryan Getzlaf over the past few seasons? He's one of the most talented centers in the NHL, yet fails to deliver the goods from a fantasy perspective. He fell even further last season to a mere 11 goals / 57 points. Logic says that he has to have hit bottom. Look for a bounce back to 70+ this season.
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Marian Hossa
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CHI
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Following the lockout, Hossa was a fantasy monster, registering seasons of 92 and 100 points. In the years that followed, he saw his numbers decline as he hopped from team to team. 2011-12 was a year of redemption for the winger, as he re-emerged as a fantasy star. His balance of goal scoring, +/- and Power play goals helped him finish as the 9th best fantasy forward in the NHL. It helped that it was his first healthy season since '06-'07. If he can stay healthy, he has the supporting cast to be a star once more this season. That's a bit of a gamble, given his frail history. Upside is huge, but the risk must be considered.
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Olli Jokinen
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WIN
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The Jets feature a cast of good, but not great, offensive threats. So Jokinen may finally feel at home. Over his 13 year NHL career, he's consistently been one of the most inconsistent players in the league. Coming out of the lockout, he put together a couple of spectacular seasons, but has failed to produce any magic over the last several seasons. Can another fresh start rejuvenate him, or are we looking at another mediocre fantasy campaign? Could go either way.
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Patrick Kane
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CHI
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At this point in his career, Kane was expected to be listed among the reliable elite. Turns out he's made more headlines off the ice than on ice, which isn't typical for stars in this sport. He peaked in 2010 with 30 goals and 88 points, but has dropped both totals in the two years since. He certainly has the speed and skills to get back to the top, but right now, you have to wonder if immaturity will allow him to get there. Look for an upward correction from last year's totals, with potential to rise way above that.
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Bryan Little
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WIN
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Technically, there can only be 30 #1 centers in the league, and so technically, Little qualifies to be on that list. This, despite having fallen short of his career high of 51 points for the last 3 seasons. The potential is there, and he's just 24 years of age; however, the Jets need more from the top pivot. Even he doesn't produce early, look for Burmistrov to steal his job.
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Brad Richards
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NYR
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Few players are as hard to predict from year to year as Brad Richards. His goal scoring lingers in the mid-20's, but the assists are all over the map. Should he and Rick Nash connect in 2012, he may see a correction from his disappointing debut with New York. I would plan for a slight bump over last year's 66 point season. Could be much higher, or much lower.
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Alexander Semin
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CAR
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Alex Semin is the poster child for "Gamble". 21 goals / 54 points last season. 40 goals / 84 points 2 years ago. So which Semin will the Canes be showcasing when the season kicks off this fall? It's a gamble. Semin has the talent to win the Rocket Richard trophy. He's also capable of showing up on waivers by Christmas. Gauge your risk level and take your chances.
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Jason Spezza
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OTT
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After several seasons of injuries and inconsistency, intensified by constant trade rumors, Spezza once again found himself in the thick of the scoring race down to the final quarter of the season. His 34 goals and 84 points were his best totals since 2007, and saw him finish 5th in total fantasy value on offense. It's tempting to assume he will fall right back into his spot among the top centers in the game, but you just can't ignore history. It seems just as likely that Spezza could slide back down a notch. Set your expectations around 70 points, but don't be shocked if he blows that away.
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Paul Stastny
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COL
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Hard to know what's coming next for Stastny. He hit the 70 point mark in 3 of his first 4 seasons, but has fallen well short of that over the past two. His goal scoring has remained consistent (expect another 20 each year), but the assists have tailed off. That may be a product of the company he keeps. He'll get a new target with the arrival of Parenteau and will have a chance to build more chemistry with Calder winner Landeskog. Look for a bounce back effort from Stastny in 2012-13.
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Defense
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Brent Burns
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SAN
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Burns fell a little shy of expectations after coming over in the Heatley deal last season. He still had a respectable showing with 11 goals and 37 points for the Sharks. Burns has had injury problems throughout his career and had offseason hernia surgery. He should be ready for camp, but it's worth applying caution here.
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Alex Goligoski
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DAL
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The Stars paid a dear price to get Goligoski from the Pens, moving out scoring ace James Neal in the process. Thus far, that deal has been lost, as he's failed to be the top 10 defenseman they envisioned him becoming. There's still time for this deal to be salvaged; however. At age 27, he's in his prime scoring years. The Stars have a significantly different look offensively coming into 2012, so there's no telling what effect (good or bad) this may have on his value as a fantasy option. Right now, I fashion him as a gamble worth pursuing.
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Kyle Quincey
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DET
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Quincey has lingered around the NHL for 7 seasons now, but never seems to make it through a full season. He returns to a Detroit team badly in need of defense with the loss of Lidstrom and Stuart. This may be his best opportunity to emerge as a viable fantasy option. Could go either way. Take a late-draft gamble on him, due to his upside with Detroit.
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Goalies
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Ilya Bryzgalov
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PHI
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Who know what's going on inside the mind of this man and what effect it may have on his fantasy numbers for the coming season? He was a total beast during his tenure in Phoenix, then crashed and burned through most of his first go with Philly. He recovered nicely in Spring, with a brilliant stretch of wins in March, only to crash and burn in the playoffs. They Flyers have no choice but to run with their investment, so he'll get the starts even if he struggles. Philly is guaranteed to put up 40+ wins and he'll be seeing most of those. He has the potential to be a top 3 goaltender, but after last season, this is a gamble to be sure.
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Marc-Andre Fleury
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PIT
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Forget about the playoffs. I said, forget about it... Let's get back to that regular season when Fleury piled up 42 wins to go with a 2.36 GAA for the Pens. He was just outside the ranks of the Vezina candidates. (Hey, forget about the playoffs, ok?). What happened in April against the Flyers is hard to explain, and with Fleury, it's always hard to explain. But the bottom line here is that he's a great goalie who will start the bulk of the games for a great team. The addition of Vokoun can only help, as Bylsma won't feel obligated to hang the Flower out to dry when he has a bad game or two. Look for a fine bounce back in 2012-13. That said, we'll still classify this pick as a gamble. (It's hard to forget about the playoffs.)
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Roberto Luongo
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VAN
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Until we know for certain where Luongo will be playing this fall, it's tough to know where to place him. He's basically fallen to a 1A/1B situation in Vancouver with Schneider. If he gets a new home, he will do so as the undisputed #1. For now, assuming Vancouver gets his services, he's a decent #2 goalie option who can be the best in the game for short periods of time.
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James Reimer
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TOR
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The situation in Toronto is similar to that in Florida. There is a good possibility that Burke's work is not done for the year in regards to the goalie position. As the roster stands now, Reimer defaults back into the #1 goalie position. He took a bit of a step back in his sophomore season after shining as a rookie. Injuries were a major factor in the stumble, so if he can get healthy, he may be a strong bounce-back/sleeper candidate. Don't bank on him as a starter, but he's a risk worth taking on your bench.
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Cory Schneider
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VAN
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Few goalies have their fate tied to another the way the Schneider does with Luongo. Should Luongo get moved out of Vancouver, Schneider easily becomes a top 10 option, probably even top 5. If the tandem remains in tact, his value is considerably less, as you can't win 40 games when you only start 30. His numbers merit #1 status, but until the Luongo situation is clarified, you're taking a big chance on drafting Schneider.
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Mike Smith
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PHO
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Remember Jim Carey? (not the stupid actor, people). How about Andrew Raycroft? (oh wait, he's still playing, isn't he?)... My point is, let's not get too excited here. Sure, Mike Smith was absolutely amazing last season, including the playoffs. He was tops in overall fantasy value for goalies and merited serious Vezina consideration. Now that we've given him his due, let's take a breath and step back a bit. This is Mike Smith. Who couldn't earn the starting job in Tampa. Tampa Bay. He's playing for the Coyotes, who still can't decide if they like their home. This team can only overcome distractions and small payrolls for so long. You can't overperform forever. For that reason, I'm respecting his skills, his solid (1) year, and most certainly, his size. But don't be duped into thinking he's earned a spot with the fantasy elite just yet.
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