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Falling
The trends indicate that these boys are on the way down. You have to know when a star player has maxed out his potential and has
started down the slope to retirement or obscurity.
Offense
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Erik Cole
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DAL
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The Habs surprised many by giving luring Cole away from the Canes last summer with a big Free Agent contract. Cole surprised even more by making that contract look like a bargain. He led the team with 35 goals, setting a near career best. It's hard to picture him getting back to the level again this season. The good news is that he won't be challenged for playing time on the right wing. Montreal is shallow on talent at that position, so he'll see plenty of minutes. 25 goals is a more realistic target.
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Pavel Datsyuk
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DET
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Pavel remains one of the top talents in the game, but his days as a fantasy superstar are clearly behind him. After four dominating seasons coming out of the lockout, he has gone 3 straight seasons with 70 points or less. He's also weak on goal-scoring for players in that territory. So while he's critical to the team success for Detroit, he won't single-handedly make your fantasy team a winner. Another concern his health. He missed a couple of weeks late last season following knee surgery. His points-per-game declined noticeably after returning.
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Jaromir Jagr
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BOS
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If he couldn't crack 20 goals playing with Giroux, don't expect more on 2nd line duties in Dallas.
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Patrick Marleau
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SAN
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Marleau has seen his goal and point totals drop steadily for two seasons in a row. After finishing the season with a strong run, he was shutout in 5 playoff games. So what will happen next? It's tough to know with Marleau. The good news is, he is one of the few players in the league to top 30 goals in 6 of the last 7 seasons. There's no reason to believe he cannot do it again. He's also popped in 10+ ppg for the last 4 seasons. He's a safe mid-round pick, but don't hold out hope for an increase over last year's numbers. A slight dip would not be shocking.
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Teemu Selanne
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ANA
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One more kick at the can. Again. You have to love what Selanne has brought late in his career, but trusting him to provide at age 42 is a bit naive. Think 20 goals and 55 points in what should be the final go.
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Henrik Zetterberg
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DET
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Last season was the first time in his 9 year NHL career that Zetterberg suited up for all 82 games. Despite the good health, he saw a noticeable dip in production, dropping to just 22 goals and 69 points. The Wings are sliding in the wrong direction, as is their top gun. Look for another slight step back from Hank in 2012-13, at least from a fantasy perspective.
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Defense
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Sergei Gonchar
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OTT
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He's not done yet. But almost. Following a terrifying first season with Ottawa in 2010-11, he bounced back a bit last year with a 37 point effort. Nowhere near what he produced through most of his career, but still enough to merit a fantasy roster spot. As he enters his 17th NHL season, he's no longer counted on to carry the mail. Look for him to squeeze out one more 30 point season this year.
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Duncan Keith
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CHI
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Are Duncan Keith's best days already behind him? After capturing the Norris Trophy in the spring of 2010, his goal and point totals have dipped for two straight seasons. His 4 goals and 40 points last season pale in comparison to the 14/69 he put up two years before. At age 29, he's not exactly old, but there is cause for concern here. If you set your expectations based on 2012 and not 2010, you won't be disappointed having him as a #2 defenseman your roster.
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Kimmo Timonen
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PHI
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Timonen has been one of the most reliable fantasy defensemen for over a decade, but at age 37 you have to start to question how long it can last. His goal production has tailed off in recent seasons, but he's remained a steady producer of assists. With Carle gone and Pronger still out of the picture, Philadelphia has little choice but to give him all the playing time he can handle. He's still a decent 3rd or 4th slot option, but his better days are behind him now.
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Lubomir Visnovsky
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NYI
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Visnovsky fell hard and fast. After a fantastic 68-point season in 2010-11, he dropped like a rock to 27 points last season. He was then dealt to the Islanders, and (surprise) he doesn't want to be there. At age 35 and with his current frame of mind, he's got to be considered a declining asset. Still has potential to be a factor, but don't bank on it.
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Dennis Wideman
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CGY
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Wideman just can't seem to find a permanent home. He's donning his 5th different sweater in 8 years. Despite the movement, he's consistently delivered solid goal totals, typically in double digits. While I like the consistency, I don't like the new colors. Wideman wouldn't be the first defenseman to see his fantasy value plummet with a move to Calgary. Look for a slight decline in production this year, playing for a Flames team that will struggle to avoid being among the worst offensive teams in the league.
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Marek Zidlicky
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NJD
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Zidlicky was in full decline with Minnesota, but had a small rebirth after arriving in New Jersey. He's certainly not the fantasy workhorse he used to be, but he showed he's capable of contributing in stretches. Consider him as a nice bench player who can fill in with a point or two per week.
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Goalies
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Niklas Backstrom
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MIN
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Backstrom's key vitals continue to fall. For the past four seasons, his games played, and thus his win totals, have consistently gone downhill. Ironically, so has his GAA. With Harding now in his prime and armed with a new 3-year deal, Backstrom finds himself in a split-crease scenario. He's still a good goalie on an improving team, but he can no longer be tagged as a true #1 fantasy goalie.
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Martin Brodeur
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NJD
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After what this man showed us once again in the playoffs, it's tough to classify him as "falling". However, goalie fantasy value is largely tied to team success and the Devils, despite making a triumphant run to the finals, cannot be see as an improving squad. The loss of Parise and failure to make any positive roster moves leave them facing an uncertain fate. This team could struggle to put up enough wins to make the playoffs. Brodeur will do his part, but don't bank on him being a fantasy horse this season.
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Corey Crawford
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CHI
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Crawford was a serious fantasy disappointment last season. His GAA escalated to 2.72 while his save percentage tanked down to .903. And not a single shutout to his credit. On the plus side, the Hawks are still a serious challenger in the NHL and Crawford will once again be tagged as the man going into 2012-13. Should he falter, don't be shocked to Emery get more starts, or to see Chicago swing a deal for a star goaltender to supplant him. He has some upside, but it's tough to value him above a marginal #2 option.
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Evgeni Nabokov
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NYI
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In a world of change, fantasy hockey has come to depend on one constant. That is, you're a fool to draft an Islanders goalie. This time around, the Isles have shed Montoya from the mix, leaving 37 year old Nabokov standing as the most healthy and reliable option in net. He finished the season on the bench, but should be back to health by October. Nabokov was once a great fantasy goaltender, and he can be very good in spurts as he winds down his career.
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Tomas Vokoun
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PIT
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The upside here is obviously limited, but the stats show that he hasn't slipped much, if any, late in his career. Despite starting just 48 games for the Caps, he put more wins on the board than he had in the previous two seasons in Florida, playing many more games. Obviously, his role at this point is to fill in for Fleury when the bad time strike. He should do it well and earn fantasy points in spurts.
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