The Shark Blog
by chewy
4. October 2011 10:00
If you're in it to win, and not just have a good showing, you need to capitalize on a breakout player or two. Finding these guys is a challenge. Here are a few players that seem poised to post huge jumps in a numbers over their previous highs:
Offense
Jamie Benn DAL
Benn made good progress in his sophomore season, adding 15 points to get to 56. The departure of Richards means Benn will be promoted to the #1 center role and should see increased playing time. He can play all forward positions, which makes him even more valuable. He missed a chunk of time with a bum shoulder in February, but came back stronger than ever down the stretch. Could be a big season for Benn.
Matt Duchene COL
Duchene took a step forward in his 2nd season, adding 3 goals and 9 assists to his already impressive rookie totals. Colorado is quickly becoming his team and this may be the year he breaks out and becomes a point-a-game player.
John Tavares NYI
Islander fans have patiently awaited the breakout of their overall #1 pick from two years back. At times he has shown himself to be a top-tier goal scoring threat, but then he goes cold for games at a time. He's just 20 years old and the talent around him is getting better along with him. Expect that breakout season to come in 2011-12. Start the bidding at 40 goals.
James van Riemsdyk PHI
The progression of Van Riemsdyk helped give Holmgren the confidence to deal Carter and Richards this summer. Big things are expected from this emerging sniper. His 5-game scoring streak in the playoffs was just another indicator of what's to come this season. Look for a big breakout year in his 3rd season with the Flyers.
Jakub Voracek PHI
The former #7 overall pick will try and do in Philly what he couldn't accomplish in his limited time with Columbus. He'll do battle with Simmonds and Jagr for top minutes on the right wing. Should he earn those minutes, it's a good bet he'll top his career high of 50 points this season. It could be a breakout season for Voracek.
Defense
Victor Hedman TAM
Hedman didn't dominant the league in his first two seasons the way many had hoped he would, but he has shown significant progress, particularly into the playoffs last season. He's starting to show a little aggression, which should create space for him and his shot. He should show a significant improvement on his 3-goal, 26-point sophomore totals. Keep an eye on him as a potential breakout defenseman this year.
Jamie McBain CAR
McBain met expectations in his rookie season, putting up 30 points for the Canes. As the season wore on, he continued to register 20+ minutes, and should see his role expand this year. Look for him to progress further on the fantasy radar, and has breakout potential. 50 points are within reason, but 40 are more likely.
Alex Pietrangelo STL
If not for a technicality, Pietrangelo could easily have been in the final discussions for the Calder trophy. 11 goals and 43 points were impressive for the giant blueliner in his first true full NHL season. Assuming the Blues score more goals this time around, you can expect a healthy bump in his numbers, making him a prime breakout candidate.
Goalies
Hard to spot many solid bets here, though some are destined to emerge, based on injuries, etc.
Jacob Markstrom FLA
Markstrom will get a fair shot at earning the number one job in Florida in his rookie season. The promise is there. What you do with it is up to you.
by chewy
13. September 2011 16:04
You won't get very far in fantasy hockey by drafting purely on last season's stats. For one thing, you'll be sure to miss out on a key segment of the fantasy world: the rising star. These are the guys on the upward trend, who are due to see a significant uptick in their fantasy value over previous seasons. We've targeted a number of players with a strong chance of hitting new highs in 2011-12. Here are a handful to consider as you prepare for your fantasy draft:
Offense
Jordan Eberle EDM
Eberle, like Taylor Hall, saw a promising rookie season interrupted by injury. He missed 13 games in January with an ankle problem, but recovered nicely to finish the season. Expect him to take another good step forward in his second season, as the young offense in Edmonton continues to develop.
Loui Eriksson DAL
Erikson has set new highs in points in each of his five NHL seasons, though his goal totals have dipped slightly the past two years. He's an elite scoring threat - the best the Star have to offer, now that Neal and Richards are gone. How much will Richards' departure affect Eriksson? While that is cause for some concern, consider in the 10 game stretch without Richards last season, he still managed to pop in 5 goals. Expect 30+ tallies from Erikson in 2011-12.
Michael Grabner NYI
34 goals and 18 assists. It's not often you see a guy with totals that distorted. Grabner piled on the goals in the 2nd half of last season to garner considerable attention for the Calder trophy. The Islanders figure to be a powerful offensive team this season, and his goal to assist ratio should level out. Look for him to better his rookie stats in his 2nd full season.
Taylor Hall EDM
Hall was hanging around in the Calder conversation until he injured his ankle and had to sit out the final 17 games of the season. All told, it was a decent start to what promises to be a stellar career. Expect Hall to be healed and ready to resume justifying his 1st overall selection last spring. Look for a huge jump in goals and points in his sophomore season.
Ville Leino BUF
Ville Leino should finally get the opportunity he's been waiting for, now that he's a big fish on a new team. He did well with the limited playing time he was handed with the Flyers. He immediately goes to the top RW position with Buffalo. Expect either a big jump in production, or a lot of talk about being overpaid.
Bryan Little WIN
Little peaked early in his career, breaking out with 31 goals in his 2nd season. The last two years have yielded more humble results. He's just 23 years old, and is #1 center in Winnepeg this season. His ability to play wing makes him more flexible, so your guaranteed top line duties this season regardless of position. If the Jets can find some scoring to partner with him, he should be able to set a career high in points. Look for a big climb either way this season from Little.
Joe Pavelski SAN
Pavelski delivered an impressive 46 assists last season and continues to emerge as one of the best playmakers in the game. The Sharks have plenty of weapons, including newcomer Havlat, to finish those passes. Look for Pavelski to reach another high in points in 2011-12. 70 points are within reach.
Jeff Skinner CAR
Skinner was one of the biggest surprises of the year, bursting on the scene with 31 goals at the age of 18. He instantly becomes the biggest scoring threat that Carolina can offer and should use his speed and hands to make a push for 35 or more goals in 2011-12.
Derek Stepan NYR
Stepan was a scoring wiz before joining the big leagues. He made his NHL debut with a hat trick on opening night last season. All told, it was a strong rookie year, giving the Rangers a much needed scoring threat at center. He'll be the #2 pivot in town this season, so look for plenty of points from Stepan this year.
Defense
Brent Burns SAN
Burns had a rough couple of seasons in Minnesota, mostly due to a series of injuries. He clearly rebounded in style last year, getting back to his 2007-08 form and stats. His move to San Jose will create a potentially dynamic offensive duo when paired with Boyle. Look for another 15 goals and close to 50 points out of Burns this season.
John Carlson WAS
Carlson's strong rookie performance helped ease the pain of Mike Green's demise. He contributed 37 points while logging top tier minutes for the Caps. He'll be a prominent player for Washington once again this season and will continue to push to enter the elite at this position. Look for a 45-point campaign.
Cam Fowler ANA
On one hand, you've got to love the 10 goals and 40 points that Fowler contributed as a rookie. On the other hand, the -25 +/- rating hurts a bit. He's got to shore up his defensive play to make him a solid #2 option on your team. His offensive upside is huge, and he should team up with Visnovski to provide big points from the back end for the Ducks.
Cody Franson TOR
Franson demonstrated decent progression in his sophomore season, rising from 21 points to 29 points, including 8 goals. He'll be hard pressed to supplant Weber and Suter in terms of minutes, but expect him to continue to rise in his third year. He could enter the 40 point range this time around.
Alex Goligoski DAL
Goligoski has been on a steady ascent since he joined the NHL, and he seemed to shine after the move to Dallas last spring. Expect another bump in the point totals this season, putting him into the 15 goals / 50 point territory. He could easily finish as a top 10 defenseman this year.
Erik Johnson COL
Johnson will have to face the burden of high expectations after being brought in at a heavy cost in the deal with the Blues. So far, he's put up decent numbers for a young defenseman. He's just now entering his prime, and he's as good as it's going to get for the Avs, after they parted with Liles this summer. He's a strong bet for 10 goals and 40+ points this time around.
Erik Karlsson OTT
If there was one bright spot for Sens fans last season, it was the emergence of Erik Karlsson. His 13 goals were a very pleasant surprise. His -30 was a bit of an eyesore, but the whole Ottawa roster had that problem last season. Don't expect that +/- to improve dramatically, but you can look forward to another healthy dose of goals and assists from the new power play quarterback in Ottawa.
Dmitry Kulikov FLA
He hasn't shown it yet in his first two NHL seasons, but there's a reason that Kulikov was drafted in the first round. He has the potential to score big points in this league. Entering his 3rd season, you should expect a jump in his totals, putting him into the mix with other 40-point producers.
P.K. Subban MON
Subban did not disappoint in his rookie season. He put up 14 goals, 38 points and 124 penalty minutes. It's surprising he didn't merit much Calder consideration with those numbers. And if that's the starting point, the sky is the limit for this young pup. Anything less than 45 points would be a disappointment in his sophomore season.
Goalies
Jonathan Bernier LOS
See Cory Schneider. Bernier put up solid stats (2.48 GAA, .913 save percentage) in limited action behind Jonathan Quick in his first full season with the big club. He'll push hard for more playing time and could quite easily be the #1 guy at some point this year. Expect at least 30 starts as a base.
James Reimer TOR
Reimer offered a glimmer of hope to Leafs fans who have been awaiting the emergence of a legitimate #1 goalie for several years now. The job is his to lose this year, as Gustavsson hasn't lived up to the hype. Treat him as a #2 goalie option and hope he can repeat his rookie effort.
Cory Schneider VAN
The story for Schneider hasn't changed much since this time last year. Everyone knows he's good enough to be a #1, but that Luongo guy isn't going away. Draft him for depth.
by chewy
6. September 2011 08:41
If you've played
fantasy hockey (or any fantasy sport) for long, you know that you don't
typically win a season based on those first few rounds of picking
superstars. For the most part, those
picks all even out. It's the sleepers
that can take an ordinary team and propel it to greatness. Finding that hidden gem, late in the draft,
that finishes in the top 10 can make all the difference in the world. So what are you looking for as you scan your
eye deep down the list of last year's stats?
A few factors come to mind:
1. Young, rising
stars who are being promoted into a bigger role. For many players, it's simply a matter of
opportunity. Consider Claude Giroux last
season. No one doubted the talent. He just had too many stars to leapfrog to get
to 20 minutes a game. When the hole
opened up, he seized it.
2. Down and back
again. Some players saw a decline in
recent years, due to injury or other factors.
When they're set to return, they can often be overlooked and
undervalued. This can also ring true for
players who left to play in the KHL for a time and are now returning to the
NHL.
3. Young guns who
peaked early, then slid a bit. Often
times, a rookie will burst out of the gate, then level off in their 2nd or 3rd
season. We tend to write these players
off by their fourth year, when in reality, that's just the time when we should
expect them to hit their prime. Here is
where you can find some real value.
GOALIES
Tuukka Rask (BOS)
Even in the midst of
Thomas's superhuman season, Rask managed to find his way into 29 games last
season. That shows how serious the Bruins are about getting him playing time.
Add in the extended playoff run, and Boston will turn to him more and more in 2011-12.
Should Thomas come down to earth, or sustain another injury, Rask will
instantly propel to a top 10 option. Don't be afraid to draft him, as he'll get
enough starts either way to warrant the selection.
Curtis McElhinney (PHO)
With Bryzgalov gone,
the starting gig in the desert is completely up for grabs. McElhinney seems
like a fair bet to edge out LaBarbera and Smith for the early starts. This one
won't be decided until the first puck drops. If you're looking for a late-round
gamble in a deep league desperate for goalie starts, throw McElhinney on your
list.
DEFENSE
Jonathan Blum (NAS)
Blum was a first
round pick in 2007, but has (and will continue to) struggled to earn top
minutes on the crowded Nashville defense. He has the skills to put up big
numbers. He just needs the opportunity to make it happen. He could be a good
sleeper to keep an eye this season.
Alex Edler (VAN)
Edler missed the 2nd
half of the season with a back injury. He returned in the playoffs, and while
he didn't produce much offensively, the important thing is that he showed
himself to have fully recovered. With Ehrhoff out of town, the Canucks will be
counting on Edler to play top minutes. Expect 40+ points from him in 2011-12.
Ryan Whitney (EDM)
Whitney started last
season on a tear, with 27 points in 35 games. A severe ankle injury ended his
season prematurely. Most fantasy owners have probably forgotten about him at
this point. He should be ready for the start of the season. Look for Whitney to
be the lone source of hope on the Edmonton defense this season once again.
OFFENSE
Tyler Kennedy (PIT)
With all the big
names that wear a sweater in Pittsburgh, it's easy to overlook the 5'11''
winger who wears #48. Penguin fans know that he's the one thing that kept the
offense alive when the plague hit last spring. Kennedy has never passed on a
chance to shoot the puck, and given enough time on the wing with Crosby or
Malkin, he has a good shot at cracking 30 goals sometime soon.
Vincent Lecavalier (TB)
Hard to paint a $10
million dollar center as a sleeper, but his declining point totals have him
falling out of sight for fantasy players. Down the stretch and into the
playoffs, he looked a bit more like the Vinnie of old. He registered 17 points
in the last 14 regular season games. He also played above a point a game
through the long playoff run last spring.
James Neal (PIT)
Neal was a shocking
disappointment upon arriving in Pittsburgh last spring. The goal scorer in
Dallas suddenly went dry with the Pens. Perhaps the summer will be good for his
psyche and he'll start things fresh in the fall. Should he find significant time
along side Malkin and/or Crosby, the theory is he can be a lethal sniper. He
should be available late in the draft and is worth a shot.
Tyler Seguin (BOS)
There's a chance
that Seguin won't even make the team this fall. There's a better chance he'll
be a significant fantasy factor by the end of the season. He showed flashes of
brilliance in the playoffs that justify his #2 overall selection in 2010. His
versatility will help his cause as well, since he can slide into the center or
wing position. With Horton and Savard still reeling from concussions, it seems
likely that Seguin can fill a scoring void for Boston this season.
Paul Stastny (COL)
Stastny's totals in
2010-11 were disappointing after the standard his set for himself in his first
few seasons. He dropped from 79 points to 57, yet he actually scored more goals
last year. His low point total will cause many owners to undervalue him at this
year's draft. He could easily turn it on and crack 80 points this season. Prime
sleeper candidate to target mid-draft.
A few other guys who
will be undervalued based on last season's performance, but are hard to paint
as "sleepers" to consider as you draft:
- Nicklas Backstrom (WAS)
- Pavel Datsyuk (DET)
- Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
- Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ)
by chewy
2. September 2011 09:19
The cupboard is stocked with fantasy talent at the wings. As you prepare for your fantasy draft, be sure to know you league's system. Some leagues group wingers together, others discern between left and right wing, and others still group all offense together. If your league drafts by position, be sure to focus on the left wing position. Aside from the elite (Ovechkin/Sedin), the left is not nearly as deep in talent as the right side. Be sure to snag a left winger early, and if you're lucky enough to draft in the top 4 or 5, be sure and grab Ovie or Daniel there.
Here are the top 10 wingers to target in the 2011-12 fantasy hockey draft:
TIER 1
1. Alex Ovechkin (LW-WAS)
Ovechkin saw a huge decline in his stats last season, but don't let that scare you away from reinstating him as this year's top draft choice. With Crosby's health concerns, and Stamkos's late season collapse, #8 is the best bet out there to dominate fantasy hockey in 2011-12. Look for him to get back to 50 goal form.
2. Daniel Sedin (LW-VAN)
Daniel finally broke through with the best season of his career (by far) in 2010-11. He topped 100 points and 40 goals and should make a good run at that again this year. With Daniel, you have the guarantee of one of the top set up men in the game being on the ice with him every shift. No other forward comes with that promise. That makes him a safe pick to be in the top 10 in goals and points for the foreseeable future.
3. Corey Perry (RW-ANA)
6 seasons in the NHL and his numbers have risen steadily in each of them. He surged late in the year to reach 50 goals and earn himself a Hart Trophy in the process. No reason to expect much of a drop off this year. At age 26, he's in his prime, he's healthy, and he has top notch talent around him. All signs point to another strong fantasy season.
TIER 2
4. Claude Giroux (RW-PHI)
Giroux reported in with the breakout season that many expected him to produce last year. He was a huge reason why the Flyers were comfortable letting go of Carter and Richards. He is now the go-to guy on the Philly offense and may challenge the big dogs for the scoring title when all is said and done in 2012.
5. Patrick Kane (RW-CHI)
Kane took his foot off the gas a bit, following the Stanley Cup celebration in 2010. His numbers slipped, but he stayed at a point-a-game and came close to 30 goals. He remains an elite right winger and in his 5th NHL season, has a good shot at setting a new high in goals. Expect about 35 this time around.
6. Ilya Kovalchuk (RW-NJ)
Kovalchuk had a season to forget last year. He registered his lowest point total in 9 years with a meager 60. On the bright side, he still pounded in 31 goals and saw close to 25 minutes a game for the Devils. They've hitched their wagons to his contract, so no matter what happens, he'll get plenty of playing time and opportunity to return to superstar status. Plan for a return to 40 goals and look for him to slip to round 3, based on his dismal performance last year.
7. Pavel Datsyuk (LW-DET)
Datsyuk missed a chunk of time with a hand injury in December and a lower body injury in March. For that reason, he managed just 59 points in 56 games. Consider him a sleeper pick, as he'll likely get back to 80 points this year. He was obviously back to full health in the playoffs, with 15 points in 11 games.
8. Henrik Zetterberg (LW-DET)
It's too bad that he's so darn responsible defensively. It would be fascinating to see what kind of numbers Zetterberg could put up if the leash was taken off. Even with his conscience, he manages to score points in bunches and should do so once more this season. Count on another run at 80 points for Hank.
TIER 3
9. Loui Eriksson (RW-DAL)
Erikson has set new highs in points in each of his five NHL seasons, though his goal totals have dipped slightly the past two years. He's an elite scoring threat - the best the Star have to offer, now that Neal and Richards are gone. How much will Richards' departure affect Eriksson? While that is cause for some concern, consider in the 10 game stretch without Richards last season, he still managed to pop in 5 goals. Expect 30+ tallies from Erikson in 2011-12.
10. Bobby Ryan (LW-ANA)
31. 35. 34. Those are pretty good numbers when looking at goal totals for the last three seasons. Ryan is in a sweet spot on the left wing, playing with Getzlaf and Perry when possible. As far as left wingers are concerned there aren't many picks safer than Ryan for another 30 goal season.
To see the rest of my top 75 winger rankings, visit: http://www.landsharkhockey.com/LS/tools/DraftRankings.aspx. You can also customize your own list there and practice with our free mock drafting system.
by chewy
31. August 2011 09:37
The center position
is where you make your money, so you want to be sure and snag a superstar
here. The position is also very deep, so
you won't see a horrible drop off beyond the top ten. The other good news here, is that compared to
other positions, the top centers are fairly predictable from year to year. With few exceptions, you can draft these guys
with confidence that you'll get a great return on that early round
investment. Here are the top 10 to
target at your draft:
TIER 1
1. Steven Stamkos (TB)
Stamkos was well on
his way to collecting all the hardware last season when he stumbled
significantly in the 2nd half. Just remember, this kid is still 21 years old
and has another 15+ seasons to dominate the NHL. He's arguably the best sniper
in the league and still has plenty of talent around him in Tampa to set up
those one-timers. He should recover just fine and challenge for those trophies
again this season.
2. Sidney Crosby (PIT)
The biggest question
at this year's draft table will what to do in round 1 with Crosby. Don't expect
much clarity from the Pens to help your decision making. You just have to
choose if the benefit of getting the top talent in the league is worth the risk
of getting nothing if he doesn't return, or returns too late to help you. It's
a gamble, but in this case, it's probably one worth taking pretty early on.
TIER 2
3. Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
Another Penguins
center, another potential first round gamble to consider. He's reported back to
full health and ready to return to dominance, entering his 6th NHL season. As
with Crosby, you have to weigh crazy potential against a history of injury. As with
Crosby, if he falls to me in the 2nd round, I'll take my chances.
4. Henrik Sedin (VAN)
If your league is
bullish on goals, you may be looking at the wrong Sedin. Otherwise, Henrik is
as safe a bet as any to lead your fantasy team to victory this season. He
hasn't missed a game in six straight seasons. He's topped 60 assists in the
last five seasons. And when Daniel gets a goal, he's sure to tally a point
(which is often).
5. Ryan Kesler (VAN)
Kesler offers the
complete package when it comes to fantasy value. Goals, assists, +/-, PIMS...
he's even become a power play demon, with 15 goals. You need game winners - how
about 7 last season? He's now turned in perfect attendance for 3 straight seasons.
What's not to like here?
6. Eric Staal (CAR)
Staal has been a
lonely superstar in Raleigh. If only he could find a superstar partner to work
with, he could challenge for a scoring title or two. Perhaps Jeff Skinner will
emerge as that man in the years to come, though Skinner's currently lining up as
the #2 center. For now, sleep easy drafting Staal, knowing you're guaranteed
about 30 goals and 70 points, with the potential for much, much more.
7. Anze Kopitar (LA)
The Kings are making
steady progress each season, and Kopitar is a huge part of that story. The
arrival of Mike Richards should take some of the pressure off of Kopitar's
line, as opponents will have to worry about two lines instead of one. His
season was cut short last spring with an ankle injury. He is expected to be
fully healed, along with linemate Justin Williams, but monitor his status
before drafting him too early.
TIER 3
8. Niklas Backstrom (WAS)
After three seasons
of steady progression up to the 100 point plateau, Backstrom's stats took a
dramatic tumble last season. Was/is the new Washington system too restrictive
on the creative center? Expect a return to stardom for both him and Ovechkin.
90 points are well within reason. He should slide to round 3. If you find him
there, take him.
9. Jonathan Toews (CHI)
Following his dream
season of 2010-11, Toews went out and set a new high in points (76), maintained
his stellar +/- rating (+26), added 10 power play goals, and 8 game winners.
Hard to beat what he brings in terms of consistent fantasy value. Look for a new
set of highs as he enters his 5th NHL season. Target 30 goals and 80 points.
10. John Tavares (NYI)
Islander fans have
patiently awaited the breakout of their overall #1 pick from two years back. At
times he has shown himself to be a top-tier goal scoring threat, but then he
goes cold for games at a time. He's just 20 years old and the talent around him
is getting better along with him. Expect that breakout season to come in
2011-12. Start the bidding at 40 goals.
Honorable mentions:
- Joe Thornton (SJ)
- Matt Duchene (COL)
- Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
- Jeff Skinner (CAR)
- Brad Richards (NYR)
To see the rest of
my top 40 center rankings, visit: http://www.landsharkhockey.com/LS/tools/DraftRankings.aspx. You can also customize your own list there
and practice with our free mock drafting system.
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