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2013 CBS NHL Fantasy Draft Strategy

by chewy 16. January 2013 09:19

Everyone seems to be in scramble mode this week to pull together drafts, leaving very little time to prepare.  If you're like me and play on various sites, it's easy to forget the rules and nuances of each league.  Blindly drafting without regard to the rules can be fatal.   Even if you're Biff Tannen and you know exactly how many points each player will score next season, it's no guarantee for fantasy victory if you don't fashion your draft strategy to the league you're in.   In this post, I'll give you some tips and guidance on how to draft (and win) in a standard CBS fantasy hockey league.

 

Point System

The first step for any league is to study the point system so you know the relative value of each position.  CBS does a good job of weighting the value of offense, defense, and goaltending, to ensure that each position has somewhat equal weight.  Quick recap of points in key categories:

 

Offense:  Goals = 3, Assists = 2

Defense: Goals = 5, Assists = 3

Goalies: Win = 5, Saves=.2 , GA=-1

 

Offense/Defense

So what does this mean?  First off, the tendency for the inexperienced GM is to blow off drafting defensemen until the later rounds, since the big names and leading scorers obviously come from the forwards.  Huge mistake here.  Because of the weighting of points, a 20 goal scorer on offense will earn 60 points for his efforts, while a 20-goal performance by a defenseman will net 100 points.  Another critical factor to realize is the relative gap between the elite players on defense versus on offense.  When it comes to defensemen, there's a fairly small number of predictable, elite performing players.  After that group of 10 or so, it drops off considerably to the point where it doesn't matter much who you pick.  The story is different for forwards.  (Aside from a few obvious exceptions like Crosby, Stamkos, and Malkin), you won't see a huge point difference between the top 10 forwards and the next 20 or so on the list.

 

Bottom line here: don't be shy about drafting one or two defensemen in the first 4 rounds, even if it means enduring a laugh or two from your unschooled competition.

 

And what about the other stats categories?

  • Penalty Minutes - At .25 a piece, it's worth considering, but not worth planning your draft around it.  There are few players in the league that bring a steady diet of points and PIMs.  Those that do should be bumped up your list a few notches (Perry, Lucic, Clowe, Marchand); however, don't go crazy drafting goons.
  • +/- - Perhaps the most arbitrary stat in fantasy sports.  Don't waste your time trying to predict this one.  Generally speaking, favor players on good teams over those with poor goal ratios.  Often times a decent +/- will line up nicely with points, and when it doesn't, it's not worth worrying about.
  • SHG/PPG - For as often as a short handed goal is scored, pay no attention.  Power Play time (and goals) on the other hand are more predictable and should factor into your rankings.  CBS offers a bonus point for each goal on the power play, so give a slight boost to guys like Selanne and Franzen that might otherwise not be worth a look.

 

 

Goalies

CBS strikes a decent balance when valuing goaltenders between wins, saves, and goals against.  A player who sees a ton of shots (Rinne, Ward, Smith) has an edge out of the gate over a guy who only has to wake up every few minutes to turn aside a casual kick save (Lundqvist).  So don't completely shy away from a good goalie on a poor defensive team.  Shutouts are hard to predict, but there are certain goalie who historically will give you that added bonus on a regular basis (Smith, Lundqvist).  The obvious category (and the one that may be easiest to predict) is wins.  At 5 points a piece, this is where you'll want to weight a good bit of your ranking for this league.

Bottom line: focus on Wins and Saves.

 

 

Points Per Game Rule

One last point worth noting in CBS scoring rules is how they award points.  It's not the total points earned that matter in a head-to-head matchup.  It's fantasy points per game played.  While this won't affect most of your decisions at draft time for forwards and defense, it's something to think about for goaltenders.  This makes a split-crease situation somewhat more palatable.   This makes the goalies in St. Louis a prime target in CBS, whereas they may be overlooked in other formats.  Halak could be the most valuable player in the league.   It's still risky to go with a part-time goalie in net, but in this format, you can pull it off.

 

Roster Limits

Then 2nd thing to consider for any league is the number of players per position, and how the league breaks down offense.  The standard CBS rules call for:

  • 2 goalies
  • 4 defense
  • 6 forwards
  • 4 bench spots

 

One of the nuances with the CBS draft rules merits serious consideration.  While you can mix and match centers and wingers once the season begins, CBS limits you to selecting just 3 total centers at draft time.  I don't understand why they do it, but if you don't play to this rule, you could seriously hurt yourself late in the draft.  First off, high-scoring fantasy centers are abundant.  It's tempting to jump all over guys like Stamkos, Malkin, and Giroux in the early rounds, but step back and look further down the list.  Guys like Backstrom, Jordan Staal, and Benn will be around much later in the draft, and is that really so bad?  If you spend 3 early picks on centers, you'll be regretting it in round 14 when you see that Henrique and  Jeff Carter are still available, but CBS won't let you pick them.  Budget your center selection for value and save one of the 3 for the final couple of rounds.  Give yourself room to cash in on a sleeper.

 

Note: Perhaps the most frustrating part about this rule is that it's different in the mock drafts.  In a mock draft, CBS will let you pick up to 6 centers.  I had to learn this the hard way two years back in my Premium League when I went to take Anze Kopitar in round 9, only to have the unfriendly red text tell me somebody else would be benefiting from his breakout campaign.  Consider yourself warned.

 

Also note, some CBS leagues draw distinction between left wing and right wing (as opposed to grouping them all together).  If this is the case, you must mock draft this way to learn a thing or two.  You'll quickly find the talent pool drops off considerably by position in these drafts.    Centers are a dime a dozen, relatively speaking here, and shouldn't be drafted until round 5 or later.

 

Goalies

In a 12 team league starting 2 goalies, it's critical to get at least one elite player at this position.  Having two is even better.  If you don't pick a goalie in either round 1 or 2, you may lose interest quickly, because you'll be losing on a regular basis.  There's only so much talent to go around, and you'll only find a handful of useful options on the waiver wire over the course of the year.  Contrast that with the forward position.  You're guaranteed to always have a serviceable forward available throughout the season when the need arises, purely based on quantity.

Note: The 3 player limit also applies to goalies during the draft, so if you're the type that likes to stash 2 backups on your bench, you'll have to wait until after the draft to add #4.  The approach here should be different than for centers, however.  There are only 25 or so goalies worth drafting, and you need a good player in your 3rd slot, so do not wait past round 11 or 12 to grab your backup.

 

Bench

CBS grants you 4 bench spots, one for each position.  Again, once the draft is done, you can fill those 4 spots with any mix of position.  At draft time, you'll obviously want to place 1 center and 1 goalie in there.  Beyond that, feel free to grab 2 defense, 2 wingers or 1 of each.  You'll probably end up dropping one of those within a few weeks anyway (possibly for 4th center or goalie), so don't sweat it much.

 

 

Player Rankings

The third major factor to consider is the default player rankings in CBS.  Each site features their own set of player rankings, and it's worth studying them in order to guess the tendencies of your opposition.  Most GMs will tend to lean on the default rankings, particularly late in the draft.  With this in mind, you can learn a lot by searching for both underrated and overrated players in their listings. 

 

Undervalued Players

If you run through a mock draft or two, and look through the rankings, you should find some players significantly undervalued in their rankings.  While you may have ranked these players quite high on your list, they may just go a few rounds later than you would have picked them.  Take advantage of this information and spend that early pick on a another position and get the value in the next round.  This is a risky strategy, but if you're in it to win, you've got to take some chances to cash in big.  Here are some players that I find to be noticeably undervalued by CBS's rankings:

 

Goalies:  Halak, Fleury, Schneider (perhaps they don't get news out of Vancouver?)

Defense: Ekman-Larsson, Streit

Centers: Nugent-Hopkins, J. Staal

Wingers: Neal, Gaborik, Vrbata, Lupul

 

NOTE: if you're in a more serious league with established managers, take this advice with a grain of salt.  If you know what you're doing, you'll have done your own homework and have your own custom draft list.

 

Overvalued Players

On the opposite end, it's worth looking for players that CBS has rated artificially high against your personal draft list.  In this case, you have a decision to make.  If you want the player badly enough, know that you'll have to grab him earlier than you would like.  A better bet may be to resign yourself to finding value someplace else.  Here are a handful of players that probably won't make it on to my squad, as somebody is bound to grab them way too early for my liking:

 

Goalies: Howard, Bryzgalov, Luongo (see Schneider above)

Defense: Ehrhoff, Del Zotto, Brendan Smith

Centers: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kopitar (hurt)

Wingers: P. Kane, Parise, Brunner

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow, we'll delve into the Yahoo fantasy draft strategy.

2013 Fantasy Hockey Crash Course

by chewy 8. January 2013 09:21

If you're like most and haven't given much thought to fantasy hockey over the past 8 months (either out of self-defense, spite, or indifference), you may need a little help getting grounded before piecing together your fantasy squad this week.  So, here's a quick primer to get your mind back on important matters:

 

2011-12 RECAP

 

  • Last season was largely about the dominance of the Penguins (at least in the regular season).  Malkin and Neal were unstoppable.  Crosby was dominant as ever in half a season of action.  Jordan Staal played his way out of town with a career season.  Kris Letang would have been in the running for the Norris, had he stayed healthy.
  • Steven Stamkos ran away with the goal scoring title, pounding in another 60 tallies
  • Claude Giroux continued to show he deserves a spot among the elite, with a 93 point effort
  • Jason Spezza returned to star status, finishing 4th in scoring
  • Erik Karlsson was in a class by himself on defense, amassing 78 points and 19 goals

 

 

IN THE CREASE

 

  • After several years of being overlooked, Lundqvist finally earned a Vezina
  • Jonathan Quick made his case for top goalie, piling up 10 shutouts
  • Mike Smith emerged as a top tier goalie in Phoenix with a .930 save percentage and 8 shutouts of his own
  • Brian Elliot and Jaroslav Halak formed the best 1-2 punch in the league, combining for 13 shutouts
  • Tim Thomas likely played out his final campaign, opening the door for Tuukka Rask to emerge this year
  • Roberto Luongo slowly slid back in favor of Cory Schneider, opening the door for a likely trade this season
  • Ilya Bryzgalov mostly crashed and burned in his Philly debut

 

 

SURPRISES

 

  • Patrik Elias and Ray Whitney showed they still had something to give, piling up 78 and 77 points, respectively
  • Scott Hartnell became a serious fantasy factor.  Paired with Giroux, he put up 37 goals on top of 136 PIMs
  • Radim Vrbata was among the league leaders in goals through the first 3/4 of the season, before fading…
  • Joffrey Lupul and Phil Kessel brought fantasy relevance back to Toronto
  • Alex Ovechkin and the Caps disappeared.
  • Marian Gaborik played 82 games

 

 

THE (LONG AND PAINFUL) OFF SEASON

 

  • Jordan Staal joined big brother and looks to get a more prominent top line center role
  • The Minnesota Wild claimed the big double-whammy, signing Parise and Suter
  • Rick Nash finally found his way out of Columbus and into New York
  • Tomas Vokoun was brought into Pittsburgh to spur Fleury on to post-season success
  • Anders Lindback became the man in the Tampa net
  • The decline in Detroit is eminent.  Lidstrom has finally hung 'em up.  With Stuart gone, too, look for the playoff streak to end.
  • Lubomir Visnovsky was dealt to the Isles, against his wishes, went to Russia, and may never come back
  • Alex Semin will try to reignite his scoring touch, moving to divisional rival Carolina

 

 

INJURY NEWS

  • Ryan Kesler remains on the shelf in Vancouver with no timeline for return from wrist and should woes
  • Marian Hossa appears to be recovered from the concussion that ended his playoffs
  • Anze Kopitar injured his knee last week and may need a month to recover
  • Rick Nash injured his groin in December, but should be ready to make his Rangers debut on time

 

 

 

Be sure to check out our free player rankings by position.  You can drag and drop / customize your own fantasy rankings from there as well.  Welcome back, NHL.

Fantasy Hockey - Safe Picks for 2012

by chewy 17. October 2012 09:51

Now that there is some glimmer of light appearing under the door, it may be time to start getting serious about preparing for some last-minute hockey drafts.  We've previously highlighted some breakout and rebound candidates to spice up your roster, but for the most part, it's not a bad idea to play it safe.  These guys aren't the superstars, but they're a solid, safe pick. They probably won't compete for the Art Ross, but you know what you're getting with these guys and can sleep at night with them on your roster.

Offense

Loui Eriksson                     DAL         

Check out Loui's point totals for the last three seasons: 71, 73, 71. His goal totals have lingered between 26 and 29 as well. Gotta love that consistency. And the truth is, he's capable of more. The Stars brought in some help for the top 2 lines, but Eriksson will still be counted on to be the team's top sniper. I fully expect 35 goals out of brother Loui in 2012-13.

Anze Kopitar                     LOS         

Kopitar seems to start each season with a bang, giving hope that he'll emerge as an elite fantasy forward. Mid season struggles have kept him from reaching the next level, but few fantasy options have been as consistent as this one over the past few years. He's good for 25-30 goals and close to 80 points.

Milan Lucic                     BOS         

Lucic managed to repeat the solid effort he displayed in 2010-11 that vaulted into the fantasy conversation. His blend of production in goals, assists, and PIMs make him a safe 4th or 5th round pick.

Jason Pominville                     BUF         

Pominville's numbers had been on the decline for the past few seasons, but 2011-12 brought a sudden bump in production. He hit the 30 goal mark for the 2nd time in his career. #29 turned 29 this year and there's no reason to predict a major dropoff. Another 70 point season should be in the cards, though banking on 30 goals may be optimistic. Flag him as a safe mid-round selection.

Henrik Sedin                     VAN         

If you're looking for a safe, reliable pick early in your draft, Henrik Sedin is a good place to start. His numbers have noticeably dipped for two straight seasons, but that still kept him at a point a game. The biggest drawback here will always be his lack of goal-scoring. If goals matter more to you than assists, adjust him accordingly. Either way, you have a guy who has put up 7 consecutive seasons of 75+ points. During that stretch, he hasn't missed a single game.

Patrick Sharp                     CHI         

If it's goals that you seek, Sharp has been one of the most consistent producers in recent years. He has topped 30 goals in 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the last two. He has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, which has kept him shy of hitting the 40 goal mark. 8 Game Winners and a +/- of +28 helped boost his overall fantasy rank to 12th best among forwards. Some of the young guns in the NHL will likely pass him by this season, but he's still a reliable contributor, particularly at right wing. He'll retain his place on the top unit in Chicago, which ensures him plenty of opportunity to pop in another 30+ tallies.

Martin St. Louis                     TAM         

True, his stats took a dive last season, dropping by 25 points and registering his lowest goal total in a decade. He's also 37 years of age. It's tempting to assume the end is drawing near; however, he's been overcoming doubts his entire career. As long as he remains the Stamkos wingman, (no reason to believe that will change) he has significant value. When you're trying to rank St. Louis, you also must consider your point system. He doesn't take penalties. All told, he's one of the safest 4th or 5th round picks out there.

Eric Staal                     CAR         

Aside from one monster season coming out of the lockout (100 points in '05-06), Staal has been remarkably consistent from year to year, lingering between 70 and 80 points. Could the arrival of little brother be enough to spur him on to greater heights once more? He's been one of the most durable forwards in the league, playing just one season with less than 81 games. With the moves Carolina made to boost his support, you should expect Staal to take at least a 10 point jump back into the 80's in 2012-13.

Joe Thornton                     SAN         

It seems like Thornton has been playing hockey forever. He started dominating the NHL at such a young age, it's tempting to assume he's nearing the end. In reality, he's "just" 33, plenty young enough to continue to near point-a-game storyline he has written for years now. As always, the problem is all assists, no goals, but man, those are a lot of assists. The man hasn't put up less than 68 points in a season yet this millennium. So, just write in 24 goals and 50 assists minimum. Use pen.

Defense

Matt Carle                     TAM         

Matt Carle is another safe, if un-sexy, pick for you to fall back on late in the draft. For the last 3 seasons, he's popped in a handful of goals and lingered between 35 and 40 points. He will be the go-to guy for the Lightning this season and will probably remain in that territory.

Alexander Edler                     VAN         

When Ehrhoff bolted for Buffalo last summer, Edler slid into the #1 man job description. He seemed to fill that role nicely, racking up close to 50 points, including an impressive 228 shots on net. Even with the addition of Garrison and the presence of a healthy Bieksa, Edler will continue to carry the mail for one of the league's top contenders. Look for another strong effort in the 10 goal, 50 point territory.

Dion Phaneuf                     TOR         

Phaneuf put together a solid comeback season last year, restoring faith in his ability to rejoin the ranks of the top fantasy D. His 12 goals ranked 6th at his position and helped him slide into 6th in total fantasy production. Look for another solid play in 2012-13 from the Leafs captain.

Brent Seabrook                     CHI         

If you're looking for a safe pick on defense, you can't do much better than Seabrook. His potential is probably limited, but you can't beat the reliability. For seven years, he's been very healthy and has regularly put up decent goal and point totals for the Hawks. Expect another decent go in the realm of 8 goals and 40 points.

Mark Streit                     NYI         

Bad news first: -27 on the +/- hurt his overall fantasy value in a big way in many league formats. He's also seen his point totals decline for four straight seasons. However, he had set the bar extremely high. Despite another slip, he still posted 47 points for a team going nowhere. Streit showed no ill affects after missing all of 2010-11, having played in all 82 games last season. Expect another solid season from Streit.

Goalies

Ryan Miller                     BUF         

Miller had a rough start to the season, which included missing a few weeks with concussion issues. It took him (and the Sabres) just a bit too long to salvage the season, but man did they look solid down the stretch. Miller was playing at All-Star levels through most of the spring, which may bode very well for his prospects heading into 2012-13. The Sabres are now a confident bunch and their young forwards are starting to click. This means more help for Miller in getting those W's on the stat sheet. Look for a solid, bounce-back year for Miller to re-establish himself as a top-notch fantasy starter.

Antti Niemi                     SAN         

Niemi's second season with the Sharks was much like his first. Another solid 34 wins to complement a respectable 2.42 GAA. He's still unchallenged for the #1 job and will see close to 70 games again this year if healthy. While the Sharks no longer get a regular mention with the league's elite, they're good enough to put wins on the table and keep Niemi as a safe, low-end #1 option.

Carey Price                     MON         

Price had plenty of pressure (nothing new) after the Habs dealt away Halak. He rose to the challenge and exceeded expectations. Montreal is clearly not among the elite teams in the league, so he won't challenge for tops in wins; however, he'll give you good stats across the board. Strong #2 goalie option.

Pekka Rinne                     NAS         

Rinne put together another fine season as the Predator's workhorse, amassing a whopping 43 wins in 73 attempts. That would be good enough for 1st in the NHL last season. On the positive side, Rinne has seen his wins increase every season and he's really just entering his prime. On the downside, he's going to feel somewhat abandoned when camp opens and one of his two prime protectors is MIA. The loss of Suter will be felt. The Nashville defense goes from being one of the best in the business to somewhat undefined, as they're forced to promote some of their younger talent. It may be unreasonable to expect Rinne to compete for the Vezina again this season, and a repeat of the 43 wins is a long shot. That said, as far as Rinne himself is concerned, he's done nothing to this point in his career that would suggest he's not worthy of remaining among the elite at this position from a fantasy perspective.

Fantasy Hockey Overrated Players for 2012-13

by chewy 14. September 2012 10:09

If you're that guy that drafts your team based purely on last season's stats, you're inevitably going to waste early picks on players who won't give you the same return this time around.   Don't get caught up in the hype. Sit back and let the less-informed GM's waste a pick, while you go for value.   Here is a bucket full of players that may be worth drafting (eventually), but will likely be picked earlier than they should.

 

Offense

 

David Clarkson                     NJD         

Clarkson has never been known for racking up the points, so try not to get too excited about those 30 goals he scored last year. That number, combined with a healthy dose of PIMs was enough for him to finish ranked 56th in total fantasy value. Don't expect a jump from there, or even a repeat. It's too much to look for Clarkson to get back to 30 goals again this time around. Don't overpay for one good season…

 

Patrik Elias                     NJD         

Every few years Elias shows up and has a crazy good campaign, only to slide down into average for a couple years between. Last season was one of those crazy good ones. You see where I'm going here... In other words, do not expect a repeat of those 78 points in 2012-13. 20 goals and 60 points is a safer bet.

 

Scott Hartnell                     PHI         

For those who know their history from the other side of the state, think Robbie Brown. Few players in recent memory have had such dramatic success that is so clearly tied to lining up next to a superstar. Hartnell pieced together a fantastic season, finishing 4th among forwards in total fantasy value. None of this would have been remotely possible on the 2nd line, but lined up next to Giroux, he was money. Should he retain that sweet spot this season, he has considerable worth; however, there are a handful of up and coming youngsters that will press for a chance on the top line. Don't overpay based on one great season.

 

Chris Kunitz                     PIT         

While he's a key contributor the Penguins success, his style of play doesn't translate well to fantasy success. Despite regularly playing with Crosby (when #87 is healthy), the best he's managed in his 8 year career is 26 goals and 61 points, which he did last season. It's tough to see him rising above those numbers at this point. As long as Crosby is healthy, he'll have some value, but his upside is limited.

 

Radim Vrbata                     PHO         

Vrbata was perhaps the biggest surprise of the year in 2011-12, coming out of nowhere to produce 35 goals. He was actually on pace for 40-45, before cooling off in the final 6 weeks. This came after a decade of 20-goal production. So where do we go from here? Keep in mind, Ray Whitney will not be back to dish him the puck. Let others draft him early and watch him slide back down to 20 goal territory again.

 

Ray Whitney                     PHO         

Every few seasons, Whitney emerges with a solid point per game season on a new club. He did it again last year, climbing all the way up to 14th in overall fantasy value on offense. Entering the season at age 40 on yet another new team, it seems like a crazy long-shot to expect it to happen again this season. He will be drafted way too early. If he falls to round 10, give him a look. But he won't…

 

 

Defense

 

Brian Campbell                     FLA         

With Campbell, you need to know your system to assess his value. If points are all that matter, he's a valuable commodity. What holds him back is his goal production. He averages about 6 goals a season, while his assists are near tops in the league. At age 33, he's still a workhorse for the Panthers, averaging close to 30 minutes a game. Regardless of your point system, he obviously has value. It's up to you to determine how much.

 

Jason Garrison                     VAN         

Garrison timed his career-season perfectly. He cashed in with a big deal with his hometown Canucks. As a fantasy GM, it's going to take more than one good season to sell me. A look back at his college career, his minor season with Rochester and his first few years with the Panthers shows little history of offensive production. You can't completely overlook the fact that he was a beast for Florida last season, racking up 16 goals, but he managed just 17 assists. Goal scoring is harder to reproduce for defensemen, particularly in new environment. Don't overvalue him until he repeats this success.

 

Ryan Suter                     NAS         

Due to the frenzy that surrounded Suter over the summer, some GMs may be tempted to overvalue him on their draft lists. He wasn't highly coveted for his fantasy value alone, but he can contribute as a solid #2 option. He's been very consistent throughout his career, producing a handful of goals and 30-some assists a year. His situation in Minnesota should mimic what he was accustomed to in Nashville. Both teams have a healthy respect for defensive play and lack superstars on offense to help pad his stats. Another 40+ point campaign is all but certain here.

 

 

Goalies

 

Craig Anderson                     OTT         

The Senators were perhaps the most surprising team of the year, with Anderson racking up an impressive 33 wins in the process. On paper, they still seem more likley to miss the playoffs than to make it. It will be a challenge for Anderson to crack 30 wins again this time around. Besides, carrying a 2.83 GAA again last season did little to help anyone's fantasy squad. Count him as a low-end #2 goalie for your draft with more downside than upside.

 

Brian Elliott                     STL         

A case could be made that Brian Elliot was the best goalie in the NHL last season. The only thing that held him back from serious Vezina consideration was his lack of games played. 9 shutouts in 38 starts certainly raises a brow. So why not rank him with the elite heading into 2012-13? At best, Elliot will split starts with the team's true #1, Jaroslav Halak. At worst, he is remembered for that one great season where he almost become a #1 goalie. Assuming Halak gets healthy and stays hot, you can expect Elliot to take more of a backseat this time around. Don't overrate his one great season.

 

Jimmy Howard                     DET         

Howard has been remarkably consistent during his three years as Detroit's #1 man. He has hit the 35 win marker in all 3 seasons. This year, Detroit threw Gustavsson into the mix as Howard's backup, but don't expect that to bite into Howard's games played. He hasn't topped 63 games played in his career to this date. Detroit won't be the same team without Lidstrom, and nobody will feel that pain more than the goalie. It seems unlikely that Howard will get back to 35 wins again this time around. Overrated.

 

Miikka Kiprusoff                     CGY         

Kiprusoff continues to exceed expectations. He's one of the few goalies who provide consistent fantasy value on a consistently poor NHL team. One man can't continue to carry the load forever and Calgary has done little to show they're serious about turning the ship around any time soon. Kiprusoff tends to get drafted a bit too early for my taste. Too much working against the aging veteran to trust beyond a bench spot.

 

Ondrej Pavelec                     WIN         

Pavelec remains the #1 goalie in Winnepeg by default. He's done little in his career thus far to get fantasy owners excited with career GAA of 2.99. On the plus side, he has seen his playing time, and wins, increase steadily over each of his 5 NHL seasons. He's entering his prime and faces only a slight challenge from Montoya for the job. Draft him if you're in dire need of goalie starts. Otherwise, look elsewhere.

 

Cam Ward                     CAR         

With Ward, it's important to know your particular league's point system. If saves are heavily rewarded, he's your man. Ward faces more rubber each night than most, playing behind the pourous Carolina defense. However, if more traditional stats, such as GAA and Wins drive your point system, Ward may be a bit overrated. Through 7 seasons, he has gone below a 2.5 GAA just once. Last season, his numbers inflated to 2.74. His job in Carolina is never in doubt, so he will get his chances. Consider him a servicable #2 goalie option.

Fantasy Hockey Rebound Players for 2012/13

by chewy 10. September 2012 14:02

Often times the best value to be found at the draft table is on players who recently suffered a downturn, but are poised to turn things around.  Sometimes you have to just forgive and forget. Last season is in the past and let's move on. Here are some guys who should see a significant rebound in their production this season.

 

Offense

 

Jeff Carter                     LOS         

It was a fascinating season for Carter, as he journeyed through highs and lows before ending the season with a Stanley Cup held over his head. He was traded twice, and injured multiple times, which prevented him from finding any kind of chemistry or rhythm. He ultimately was able to contribute for LA and should be ready for a fresh start in 2012. Expect a bounce back in goal and point totals this year, in the neighborhood of 35 / 70.

 

Matt Duchene                     COL         

Duchene set the bar pretty high with his first two seasons, which made last year's troubles so disappointing. If the Avs are going to improve, it will have to be on the shoulders of this man. 2012-13 was significantly interrupted by a sever knee injury in late December. He never found his form after that and finished with just 28 points in 58 games. He may fall off the map for most in your draft, so put the ole * next to his name and snag him in a late round. A fresh start should help him get back into fantasy relevance. Remember, he's just 21 years old and his best is still to come.

 

Alex Ovechkin                     WAS         

The last two seasons have been disappointments for fans of #8, who had grown accustomed to seeing him dominate the league for first five years of his career. So, can he get back to that level again? Perhaps only Adam Oates knows. Last season, Ovechkin ranked 30th in total fantasy value. It's hard to imagine him finishing that low again. Look for a big correction in 2012-13.

 

Derek Roy                     DAL         

Roy has average a mere 40 points over the last two seasons. 2011 can be explained, since he only played 35 contests and scored 35 points. What happened last year is a mystery. 80 games, 44 points, and a ticket to Dallas. I'm not ready to write off this talented center, particularly since he has a new start and will be feeding Jagr early in the year. Expect a comeback.

 

Chris Stewart                     STL         

2011-12 was a complete write-off for Stewart, who all but disappeared from the fantasy picture. This followed a couple of seasons where he projected as a top notch power forward. The adjustment to St. Louis has not been easy. He still provides plenty of PIMs, but will need to regain the goal-scoring touch that netted back-to-back 28 goal seasons. You can target him late on the hopes of a comeback season.

 

Defense

 

Drew Doughty                     LOS         

Doughty was a colossal disappointment through the first half of last season. By the end of the season, and certainly after lifting the Cup, memories of the big-contract hangover were long gone. Through January 2011, he had managed just 2 goals. He closed the season with 10 goals and 36 points. With a Cup ring on his finger, he is poised to challenge for some personal hardware this time around.

 

Mike Green                     WAS         

Has there ever been such a dramatic fall from grace for a fantasy hockey superstar? After consecutive seasons with 70+ points, the last two years for Green have been horrific. He hasn't been healthy for a long time, which obviously limited his chances. When he did play, he struggled to understand his role in the new-look controlled Capitals systems. He was the heart of the run and gun Capitals and found himself wondering what his role is. Assuming he's healthy, he still has the raw talent to be a huge fantasy factor. It may come down to Adam Oates and how much of a green light he gives Green. Green claims to be healthy and optimistic about the 2012 coaching situation, so this could be the steal of the draft if you catch him with a mid-round selection.

 

Tyler Myers                     BUF         

Myers has now recorded 3 season in the NHL and has seen his stats drop each year, following his Calder Trophy year. Last season was largely interrupted by a broken wrist that held him out for all of December. The Sabres came on strong down the stretch last season, as did Myers. Expect a big time bounce back for his fantasy value in 2012-13.

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