The Shark Blog
16. January 2013 09:19
Everyone seems to be
in scramble mode this week to pull together drafts, leaving very little time to
prepare. If you're like me and play on
various sites, it's easy to forget the rules and nuances of each league. Blindly drafting without regard to the rules
can be fatal. Even if you're Biff
Tannen and you know exactly how many points each player will score next season,
it's no guarantee for fantasy victory if you don't fashion your draft strategy
to the league you're in. In this post,
I'll give you some tips and guidance on how to draft (and win) in a standard
CBS fantasy hockey league.
The first step for
any league is to study the point system so you know the relative value of each
position. CBS does a good job of
weighting the value of offense, defense, and goaltending, to ensure that each
position has somewhat equal weight.
Quick recap of points in key categories:
Offense: Goals = 3, Assists = 2
Defense: Goals = 5,
Assists = 3
Goalies: Win = 5,
Saves=.2 , GA=-1
So what does this
mean? First off, the tendency for the
inexperienced GM is to blow off drafting defensemen until the later rounds,
since the big names and leading scorers obviously come from the forwards. Huge mistake here. Because of the weighting of points, a 20 goal
scorer on offense will earn 60 points for his efforts, while a 20-goal
performance by a defenseman will net 100 points. Another critical factor to realize is the
relative gap between the elite players on defense versus on offense. When it comes to defensemen, there's a fairly
small number of predictable, elite performing players. After that group of 10 or so, it drops off
considerably to the point where it doesn't matter much who you pick. The story is different for forwards. (Aside from a few obvious exceptions like
Crosby, Stamkos, and Malkin), you won't see a huge point difference between the
top 10 forwards and the next 20 or so on the list.
Bottom line here:
don't be shy about drafting one or two defensemen in the first 4 rounds, even
if it means enduring a laugh or two from your unschooled competition.
And what about the
other stats categories?
- Penalty Minutes - At .25 a
piece, it's worth considering, but not worth planning your draft around
it. There are few players in the
league that bring a steady diet of points and PIMs. Those that do should be bumped up your
list a few notches (Perry, Lucic, Clowe, Marchand); however, don't go
crazy drafting goons.
- +/- - Perhaps the most
arbitrary stat in fantasy sports.
Don't waste your time trying to predict this one. Generally speaking, favor players on
good teams over those with poor goal ratios. Often times a decent +/- will line up
nicely with points, and when it doesn't, it's not worth worrying about.
- SHG/PPG - For as often as a
short handed goal is scored, pay no attention. Power Play time (and goals) on the other
hand are more predictable and should factor into your rankings. CBS offers a bonus point for each goal
on the power play, so give a slight boost to guys like Selanne and Franzen
that might otherwise not be worth a look.
CBS strikes a decent
balance when valuing goaltenders between wins, saves, and goals against. A player who sees a ton of shots (Rinne,
Ward, Smith) has an edge out of the gate over a guy who only has to wake up
every few minutes to turn aside a casual kick save (Lundqvist). So don't completely shy away from a good
goalie on a poor defensive team.
Shutouts are hard to predict, but there are certain goalie who
historically will give you that added bonus on a regular basis (Smith,
Lundqvist). The obvious category (and
the one that may be easiest to predict) is wins. At 5 points a piece, this is where you'll
want to weight a good bit of your ranking for this league.
Bottom line: focus
on Wins and Saves.
Points Per Game Rule
One last point worth
noting in CBS scoring rules is how they award points. It's not the total points earned that matter
in a head-to-head matchup. It's fantasy
points per game played. While this won't affect most of your
decisions at draft time for forwards and defense, it's something to think about
for goaltenders. This makes a
split-crease situation somewhat more palatable. This makes the goalies in St. Louis a prime
target in CBS, whereas they may be overlooked in other formats. Halak could be the most valuable player in
the league. It's still risky to go with
a part-time goalie in net, but in this format, you can pull it off.
Then 2nd thing to
consider for any league is the number of players per position, and how the
league breaks down offense. The standard
CBS rules call for:
- 2 goalies
- 4 defense
- 6 forwards
- 4 bench spots
One of the nuances
with the CBS draft rules merits serious consideration. While you can mix and match centers and
wingers once the season begins, CBS
limits you to selecting just 3 total centers at draft time. I don't understand why they do it, but if you
don't play to this rule, you could seriously hurt yourself late in the
draft. First off, high-scoring fantasy
centers are abundant. It's tempting to
jump all over guys like Stamkos, Malkin, and Giroux in the early rounds, but
step back and look further down the list.
Guys like Backstrom, Jordan Staal, and Benn will be around much later in
the draft, and is that really so bad? If
you spend 3 early picks on centers, you'll be regretting it in round 14 when
you see that Henrique and Jeff Carter
are still available, but CBS won't let you pick them. Budget your center selection for value and
save one of the 3 for the final couple of rounds. Give yourself room to cash in on a sleeper.
Note: Perhaps the most frustrating part about
this rule is that it's different in the mock drafts. In a mock draft, CBS will let you pick up to
6 centers. I had to learn this the hard
way two years back in my Premium League when I went to take Anze Kopitar in
round 9, only to have the unfriendly red text tell me somebody else would be
benefiting from his breakout campaign.
Consider yourself warned.
Also note, some CBS
leagues draw distinction between left wing and right wing (as opposed to
grouping them all together). If this is
the case, you must mock draft this way to learn a thing or two. You'll quickly find the talent pool drops off
considerably by position in these drafts.
Centers are a dime a dozen, relatively speaking here, and shouldn't be
drafted until round 5 or later.
In a 12 team league
starting 2 goalies, it's critical to get at least one elite player at this
position. Having two is even
better. If you don't pick a goalie in
either round 1 or 2, you may lose interest quickly, because you'll be losing on
a regular basis. There's only so much
talent to go around, and you'll only find a handful of useful options on the
waiver wire over the course of the year.
Contrast that with the forward position.
You're guaranteed to always have a serviceable forward available
throughout the season when the need arises, purely based on quantity.
Note: The 3 player
limit also applies to goalies during the draft, so if you're the type that
likes to stash 2 backups on your bench, you'll have to wait until after the
draft to add #4. The approach here
should be different than for centers, however.
There are only 25 or so goalies worth drafting, and you need a good
player in your 3rd slot, so do not wait past round 11 or 12 to grab your
CBS grants you 4
bench spots, one for each position.
Again, once the draft is done, you can fill those 4 spots with any mix
of position. At draft time, you'll
obviously want to place 1 center and 1 goalie in there. Beyond that, feel free to grab 2 defense, 2
wingers or 1 of each. You'll probably
end up dropping one of those within a few weeks anyway (possibly for 4th center
or goalie), so don't sweat it much.
The third major
factor to consider is the default player rankings in CBS. Each site features their own set of player
rankings, and it's worth studying them in order to guess the tendencies of your
opposition. Most GMs will tend to lean
on the default rankings, particularly late in the draft. With this in mind, you can learn a lot by
searching for both underrated and overrated players in their listings.
If you run through a
mock draft or two, and look through the rankings, you should find some players
significantly undervalued in their rankings.
While you may have ranked these players quite high on your list, they may
just go a few rounds later than you would have picked them. Take advantage of this information and spend
that early pick on a another position and get the value in the next round. This is a risky strategy, but if you're in it
to win, you've got to take some chances to cash in big. Here are some players that I find to be
noticeably undervalued by CBS's rankings:
Goalies: Halak, Fleury, Schneider (perhaps they don't
get news out of Vancouver?)
Nugent-Hopkins, J. Staal
Gaborik, Vrbata, Lupul
NOTE: if you're in a
more serious league with established managers, take this advice with a grain of
salt. If you know what you're doing,
you'll have done your own homework and have your own custom draft list.
On the opposite end,
it's worth looking for players that CBS has rated artificially high against
your personal draft list. In this case,
you have a decision to make. If you want
the player badly enough, know that you'll have to grab him earlier than you
would like. A better bet may be to
resign yourself to finding value someplace else. Here are a handful of players that probably
won't make it on to my squad, as somebody is bound to grab them way too early
for my liking:
Bryzgalov, Luongo (see Schneider above)
Del Zotto, Brendan Smith
Zetterberg, Kopitar (hurt)
Wingers: P. Kane,
delve into the Yahoo fantasy draft strategy.
8. January 2013 09:21
If you're like most
and haven't given much thought to fantasy hockey over the past 8 months (either
out of self-defense, spite, or indifference), you may need a little help
getting grounded before piecing together your fantasy squad this week. So, here's a quick primer to get your mind
back on important matters:
- Last season was largely about
the dominance of the Penguins (at least in the regular season). Malkin and Neal were unstoppable. Crosby was dominant as ever in half a
season of action. Jordan Staal
played his way out of town with a career season. Kris Letang would have been in the
running for the Norris, had he stayed healthy.
- Steven Stamkos ran away with
the goal scoring title, pounding in another 60 tallies
- Claude Giroux continued to
show he deserves a spot among the elite, with a 93 point effort
- Jason Spezza returned to star
status, finishing 4th in scoring
- Erik Karlsson was in a class
by himself on defense, amassing 78 points and 19 goals
IN THE CREASE
- After several years of being
overlooked, Lundqvist finally earned a Vezina
- Jonathan Quick made his case
for top goalie, piling up 10 shutouts
- Mike Smith emerged as a top
tier goalie in Phoenix with a .930 save percentage and 8 shutouts of his
- Brian Elliot and Jaroslav
Halak formed the best 1-2 punch in the league, combining for 13 shutouts
- Tim Thomas likely played out
his final campaign, opening the door for Tuukka Rask to emerge this year
- Roberto Luongo slowly slid
back in favor of Cory Schneider, opening the door for a likely trade this
- Ilya Bryzgalov mostly crashed
and burned in his Philly debut
- Patrik Elias and Ray Whitney
showed they still had something to give, piling up 78 and 77 points,
- Scott Hartnell became a
serious fantasy factor. Paired with
Giroux, he put up 37 goals on top of 136 PIMs
- Radim Vrbata was among the
league leaders in goals through the first 3/4 of the season, before
- Joffrey Lupul and Phil Kessel
brought fantasy relevance back to Toronto
- Alex Ovechkin and the Caps
- Marian Gaborik played 82
THE (LONG AND
PAINFUL) OFF SEASON
- Jordan Staal joined big
brother and looks to get a more prominent top line center role
- The Minnesota Wild claimed
the big double-whammy, signing Parise and Suter
- Rick Nash finally found his
way out of Columbus and into New York
- Tomas Vokoun was brought into
Pittsburgh to spur Fleury on to post-season success
- Anders Lindback became the
man in the Tampa net
- The decline in Detroit is
eminent. Lidstrom has finally hung
'em up. With Stuart gone, too, look
for the playoff streak to end.
- Lubomir Visnovsky was dealt
to the Isles, against his wishes, went to Russia, and may never come back
- Alex Semin will try to
reignite his scoring touch, moving to divisional rival Carolina
- Ryan Kesler remains on the
shelf in Vancouver with no timeline for return from wrist and should woes
- Marian Hossa appears to be
recovered from the concussion that ended his playoffs
- Anze Kopitar injured his knee
last week and may need a month to recover
- Rick Nash injured his groin
in December, but should be ready to make his Rangers debut on time
Be sure to check out
our free player rankings by position.
You can drag and drop / customize your own fantasy rankings from there
as well. Welcome back, NHL.
17. October 2012 09:51
Now that there is
some glimmer of light appearing under the door, it may be time to start getting
serious about preparing for some last-minute hockey drafts. We've previously highlighted some breakout
and rebound candidates to spice up your roster, but for the most part, it's not
a bad idea to play it safe. These guys
aren't the superstars, but they're a solid, safe pick. They probably won't
compete for the Art Ross, but you know what you're getting with these guys and
can sleep at night with them on your roster.
Check out Loui's
point totals for the last three seasons: 71, 73, 71. His goal totals have
lingered between 26 and 29 as well. Gotta love that consistency. And the truth
is, he's capable of more. The Stars brought in some help for the top 2 lines,
but Eriksson will still be counted on to be the team's top sniper. I fully
expect 35 goals out of brother Loui in 2012-13.
Kopitar seems to
start each season with a bang, giving hope that he'll emerge as an elite
fantasy forward. Mid season struggles have kept him from reaching the next
level, but few fantasy options have been as consistent as this one over the
past few years. He's good for 25-30 goals and close to 80 points.
Lucic managed to
repeat the solid effort he displayed in 2010-11 that vaulted into the fantasy
conversation. His blend of production in goals, assists, and PIMs make him a
safe 4th or 5th round pick.
had been on the decline for the past few seasons, but 2011-12 brought a sudden
bump in production. He hit the 30 goal mark for the 2nd time in his career. #29
turned 29 this year and there's no reason to predict a major dropoff. Another
70 point season should be in the cards, though banking on 30 goals may be
optimistic. Flag him as a safe mid-round selection.
If you're looking
for a safe, reliable pick early in your draft, Henrik Sedin is a good place to
start. His numbers have noticeably dipped for two straight seasons, but that
still kept him at a point a game. The biggest drawback here will always be his
lack of goal-scoring. If goals matter more to you than assists, adjust him
accordingly. Either way, you have a guy who has put up 7 consecutive seasons of
75+ points. During that stretch, he hasn't missed a single game.
If it's goals that
you seek, Sharp has been one of the most consistent producers in recent years.
He has topped 30 goals in 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the last two. He
has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, which has kept him shy of
hitting the 40 goal mark. 8 Game Winners and a +/- of +28 helped boost his
overall fantasy rank to 12th best among forwards. Some of the young guns in the
NHL will likely pass him by this season, but he's still a reliable contributor,
particularly at right wing. He'll retain his place on the top unit in Chicago,
which ensures him plenty of opportunity to pop in another 30+ tallies.
Martin St. Louis
True, his stats took
a dive last season, dropping by 25 points and registering his lowest goal total
in a decade. He's also 37 years of age. It's tempting to assume the end is
drawing near; however, he's been overcoming doubts his entire career. As long as
he remains the Stamkos wingman, (no reason to believe that will change) he has
significant value. When you're trying to rank St. Louis, you also must consider
your point system. He doesn't take penalties. All told, he's one of the safest
4th or 5th round picks out there.
Aside from one
monster season coming out of the lockout (100 points in '05-06), Staal has been
remarkably consistent from year to year, lingering between 70 and 80 points.
Could the arrival of little brother be enough to spur him on to greater heights
once more? He's been one of the most durable forwards in the league, playing
just one season with less than 81 games. With the moves Carolina made to boost
his support, you should expect Staal to take at least a 10 point jump back into
the 80's in 2012-13.
It seems like
Thornton has been playing hockey forever. He started dominating the NHL at such
a young age, it's tempting to assume he's nearing the end. In reality, he's
"just" 33, plenty young enough to continue to near point-a-game
storyline he has written for years now. As always, the problem is all assists,
no goals, but man, those are a lot of assists. The man hasn't put up less than
68 points in a season yet this millennium. So, just write in 24 goals and 50
assists minimum. Use pen.
Matt Carle is
another safe, if un-sexy, pick for you to fall back on late in the draft. For
the last 3 seasons, he's popped in a handful of goals and lingered between 35
and 40 points. He will be the go-to guy for the Lightning this season and will
probably remain in that territory.
When Ehrhoff bolted
for Buffalo last summer, Edler slid into the #1 man job description. He seemed
to fill that role nicely, racking up close to 50 points, including an
impressive 228 shots on net. Even with the addition of Garrison and the
presence of a healthy Bieksa, Edler will continue to carry the mail for one of
the league's top contenders. Look for another strong effort in the 10 goal, 50
Phaneuf put together
a solid comeback season last year, restoring faith in his ability to rejoin the
ranks of the top fantasy D. His 12 goals ranked 6th at his position and helped
him slide into 6th in total fantasy production. Look for another solid play in
2012-13 from the Leafs captain.
If you're looking
for a safe pick on defense, you can't do much better than Seabrook. His
potential is probably limited, but you can't beat the reliability. For seven
years, he's been very healthy and has regularly put up decent goal and point
totals for the Hawks. Expect another decent go in the realm of 8 goals and 40
Bad news first: -27
on the +/- hurt his overall fantasy value in a big way in many league formats.
He's also seen his point totals decline for four straight seasons. However, he
had set the bar extremely high. Despite another slip, he still posted 47 points
for a team going nowhere. Streit showed no ill affects after missing all of
2010-11, having played in all 82 games last season. Expect another solid season
Miller had a rough
start to the season, which included missing a few weeks with concussion issues.
It took him (and the Sabres) just a bit too long to salvage the season, but man
did they look solid down the stretch. Miller was playing at All-Star levels
through most of the spring, which may bode very well for his prospects heading
into 2012-13. The Sabres are now a confident bunch and their young forwards are
starting to click. This means more help for Miller in getting those W's on the
stat sheet. Look for a solid, bounce-back year for Miller to re-establish
himself as a top-notch fantasy starter.
season with the Sharks was much like his first. Another solid 34 wins to
complement a respectable 2.42 GAA. He's still unchallenged for the #1 job and
will see close to 70 games again this year if healthy. While the Sharks no
longer get a regular mention with the league's elite, they're good enough to
put wins on the table and keep Niemi as a safe, low-end #1 option.
Price had plenty of
pressure (nothing new) after the Habs dealt away Halak. He rose to the
challenge and exceeded expectations. Montreal is clearly not among the elite
teams in the league, so he won't challenge for tops in wins; however, he'll
give you good stats across the board. Strong #2 goalie option.
Rinne put together
another fine season as the Predator's workhorse, amassing a whopping 43 wins in
73 attempts. That would be good enough for 1st in the NHL last season. On the
positive side, Rinne has seen his wins increase every season and he's really just
entering his prime. On the downside, he's going to feel somewhat abandoned when
camp opens and one of his two prime protectors is MIA. The loss of Suter will
be felt. The Nashville defense goes from being one of the best in the business
to somewhat undefined, as they're forced to promote some of their younger
talent. It may be unreasonable to expect Rinne to compete for the Vezina again
this season, and a repeat of the 43 wins is a long shot. That said, as far as
Rinne himself is concerned, he's done nothing to this point in his career that
would suggest he's not worthy of remaining among the elite at this position
from a fantasy perspective.
14. September 2012 10:09
If you're that guy
that drafts your team based purely on last season's stats, you're inevitably
going to waste early picks on players who won't give you the same return this
time around. Don't get caught up in the
hype. Sit back and let the less-informed GM's waste a pick, while you go for
value. Here is a bucket full of players
that may be worth drafting (eventually), but will likely be picked earlier than
Clarkson has never
been known for racking up the points, so try not to get too excited about those
30 goals he scored last year. That number, combined with a healthy dose of PIMs
was enough for him to finish ranked 56th in total fantasy value. Don't expect a
jump from there, or even a repeat. It's too much to look for Clarkson to get
back to 30 goals again this time around. Don't overpay for one good season…
Every few years
Elias shows up and has a crazy good campaign, only to slide down into average
for a couple years between. Last season was one of those crazy good ones. You
see where I'm going here... In other words, do not expect a repeat of those 78
points in 2012-13. 20 goals and 60 points is a safer bet.
For those who know
their history from the other side of the state, think Robbie Brown. Few players
in recent memory have had such dramatic success that is so clearly tied to
lining up next to a superstar. Hartnell pieced together a fantastic season,
finishing 4th among forwards in total fantasy value. None of this would have
been remotely possible on the 2nd line, but lined up next to Giroux, he was
money. Should he retain that sweet spot this season, he has considerable worth;
however, there are a handful of up and coming youngsters that will press for a
chance on the top line. Don't overpay based on one great season.
While he's a key
contributor the Penguins success, his style of play doesn't translate well to
fantasy success. Despite regularly playing with Crosby (when #87 is healthy),
the best he's managed in his 8 year career is 26 goals and 61 points, which he
did last season. It's tough to see him rising above those numbers at this
point. As long as Crosby is healthy, he'll have some value, but his upside is
Vrbata was perhaps
the biggest surprise of the year in 2011-12, coming out of nowhere to produce
35 goals. He was actually on pace for 40-45, before cooling off in the final 6
weeks. This came after a decade of 20-goal production. So where do we go from here?
Keep in mind, Ray Whitney will not be back to dish him the puck. Let others
draft him early and watch him slide back down to 20 goal territory again.
Every few seasons,
Whitney emerges with a solid point per game season on a new club. He did it
again last year, climbing all the way up to 14th in overall fantasy value on
offense. Entering the season at age 40 on yet another new team, it seems like a
crazy long-shot to expect it to happen again this season. He will be drafted
way too early. If he falls to round 10, give him a look. But he won't…
With Campbell, you
need to know your system to assess his value. If points are all that matter,
he's a valuable commodity. What holds him back is his goal production. He
averages about 6 goals a season, while his assists are near tops in the league.
At age 33, he's still a workhorse for the Panthers, averaging close to 30
minutes a game. Regardless of your point system, he obviously has value. It's
up to you to determine how much.
Garrison timed his
career-season perfectly. He cashed in with a big deal with his hometown
Canucks. As a fantasy GM, it's going to take more than one good season to sell
me. A look back at his college career, his minor season with Rochester and his
first few years with the Panthers shows little history of offensive production.
You can't completely overlook the fact that he was a beast for Florida last
season, racking up 16 goals, but he managed just 17 assists. Goal scoring is
harder to reproduce for defensemen, particularly in new environment. Don't
overvalue him until he repeats this success.
Due to the frenzy
that surrounded Suter over the summer, some GMs may be tempted to overvalue him
on their draft lists. He wasn't highly coveted for his fantasy value alone, but
he can contribute as a solid #2 option. He's been very consistent throughout
his career, producing a handful of goals and 30-some assists a year. His
situation in Minnesota should mimic what he was accustomed to in Nashville.
Both teams have a healthy respect for defensive play and lack superstars on
offense to help pad his stats. Another 40+ point campaign is all but certain
The Senators were
perhaps the most surprising team of the year, with Anderson racking up an
impressive 33 wins in the process. On paper, they still seem more likley to
miss the playoffs than to make it. It will be a challenge for Anderson to crack
30 wins again this time around. Besides, carrying a 2.83 GAA again last season
did little to help anyone's fantasy squad. Count him as a low-end #2 goalie for
your draft with more downside than upside.
A case could be made
that Brian Elliot was the best goalie in the NHL last season. The only thing
that held him back from serious Vezina consideration was his lack of games
played. 9 shutouts in 38 starts certainly raises a brow. So why not rank him
with the elite heading into 2012-13? At best, Elliot will split starts with the
team's true #1, Jaroslav Halak. At worst, he is remembered for that one great
season where he almost become a #1 goalie. Assuming Halak gets healthy and
stays hot, you can expect Elliot to take more of a backseat this time around.
Don't overrate his one great season.
Howard has been
remarkably consistent during his three years as Detroit's #1 man. He has hit
the 35 win marker in all 3 seasons. This year, Detroit threw Gustavsson into
the mix as Howard's backup, but don't expect that to bite into Howard's games
played. He hasn't topped 63 games played in his career to this date. Detroit
won't be the same team without Lidstrom, and nobody will feel that pain more
than the goalie. It seems unlikely that Howard will get back to 35 wins again
this time around. Overrated.
to exceed expectations. He's one of the few goalies who provide consistent
fantasy value on a consistently poor NHL team. One man can't continue to carry
the load forever and Calgary has done little to show they're serious about
turning the ship around any time soon. Kiprusoff tends to get drafted a bit too
early for my taste. Too much working against the aging veteran to trust beyond
a bench spot.
Pavelec remains the
#1 goalie in Winnepeg by default. He's done little in his career thus far to
get fantasy owners excited with career GAA of 2.99. On the plus side, he has
seen his playing time, and wins, increase steadily over each of his 5 NHL
seasons. He's entering his prime and faces only a slight challenge from Montoya
for the job. Draft him if you're in dire need of goalie starts. Otherwise, look
With Ward, it's
important to know your particular league's point system. If saves are heavily
rewarded, he's your man. Ward faces more rubber each night than most, playing
behind the pourous Carolina defense. However, if more traditional stats, such
as GAA and Wins drive your point system, Ward may be a bit overrated. Through 7
seasons, he has gone below a 2.5 GAA just once. Last season, his numbers
inflated to 2.74. His job in Carolina is never in doubt, so he will get his
chances. Consider him a servicable #2 goalie option.
10. September 2012 14:02
Often times the best
value to be found at the draft table is on players who recently suffered a
downturn, but are poised to turn things around.
Sometimes you have to just forgive and forget. Last season is in the
past and let's move on. Here are some guys who should see a significant rebound
in their production this season.
It was a fascinating
season for Carter, as he journeyed through highs and lows before ending the
season with a Stanley Cup held over his head. He was traded twice, and injured
multiple times, which prevented him from finding any kind of chemistry or rhythm.
He ultimately was able to contribute for LA and should be ready for a fresh
start in 2012. Expect a bounce back in goal and point totals this year, in the
neighborhood of 35 / 70.
Duchene set the bar
pretty high with his first two seasons, which made last year's troubles so
disappointing. If the Avs are going to improve, it will have to be on the
shoulders of this man. 2012-13 was significantly interrupted by a sever knee
injury in late December. He never found his form after that and finished with
just 28 points in 58 games. He may fall off the map for most in your draft, so
put the ole * next to his name and snag him in a late round. A fresh start
should help him get back into fantasy relevance. Remember, he's just 21 years
old and his best is still to come.
The last two seasons
have been disappointments for fans of #8, who had grown accustomed to seeing
him dominate the league for first five years of his career. So, can he get back
to that level again? Perhaps only Adam Oates knows. Last season, Ovechkin ranked
30th in total fantasy value. It's hard to imagine him finishing that low again.
Look for a big correction in 2012-13.
Roy has average a
mere 40 points over the last two seasons. 2011 can be explained, since he only
played 35 contests and scored 35 points. What happened last year is a mystery.
80 games, 44 points, and a ticket to Dallas. I'm not ready to write off this talented
center, particularly since he has a new start and will be feeding Jagr early in
the year. Expect a comeback.
2011-12 was a
complete write-off for Stewart, who all but disappeared from the fantasy
picture. This followed a couple of seasons where he projected as a top notch
power forward. The adjustment to St. Louis has not been easy. He still provides
plenty of PIMs, but will need to regain the goal-scoring touch that netted
back-to-back 28 goal seasons. You can target him late on the hopes of a
Doughty was a
colossal disappointment through the first half of last season. By the end of
the season, and certainly after lifting the Cup, memories of the big-contract
hangover were long gone. Through January 2011, he had managed just 2 goals. He
closed the season with 10 goals and 36 points. With a Cup ring on his finger,
he is poised to challenge for some personal hardware this time around.
Has there ever been
such a dramatic fall from grace for a fantasy hockey superstar? After
consecutive seasons with 70+ points, the last two years for Green have been
horrific. He hasn't been healthy for a long time, which obviously limited his
chances. When he did play, he struggled to understand his role in the new-look
controlled Capitals systems. He was the heart of the run and gun Capitals and
found himself wondering what his role is. Assuming he's healthy, he still has
the raw talent to be a huge fantasy factor. It may come down to Adam Oates and
how much of a green light he gives Green. Green claims to be healthy and
optimistic about the 2012 coaching situation, so this could be the steal of the
draft if you catch him with a mid-round selection.
Myers has now
recorded 3 season in the NHL and has seen his stats drop each year, following
his Calder Trophy year. Last season was largely interrupted by a broken wrist
that held him out for all of December. The Sabres came on strong down the
stretch last season, as did Myers. Expect a big time bounce back for his
fantasy value in 2012-13.
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