The Shark Blog
by chewy
2. July 2010 13:45
Most of the major off season moves this summer were obviously made with an eye towards capturing the Cup. The Penguins and Devils restructured their defense in a big way and role players were shifted all around the league. While these deals will play a big role in the fortunes of these NHL franchises, they barely register on the radar in terms of fantasy hockey impact. The likes of Anton Volchenkov, Dan Hamhuis and Zybnek Michalek won't get much attention on draft day. Even with some of the top end scoring talent like Kovalchuk and Gonchar, the change in scenery likely won't have much effect on their point totals. In terms of fantasy impact, you have a digger a little deeper on the transactions to appreciate the impact these moves will have this fall for your fantasy draft and the effect these moves will have on the players' fantasy value. Let's take a look at the players whose stock has risen and fallen in the past few days.
Going Up
1. Antero Niittimaki
So far this summer, the big surprise winner is Niittimaki. For the first time in his career, he looks to start the season as the #1 goalie, and what better place to do it than in San Jose. Niittimaki turned in a pretty good season for the Lightning, but there's no comparison here in terms of locale. Assuming the Sharks don't sign a 1B option, you should expect his win total to double next season. His GAA and Save % should also improve with the Sharks.
2. Nathan Horton
Horton has been toiling faithfully in Florida for years, with the promise of Rocket Richard potential. He never had the talent in Miami to set him up the way a goal scorer needs. Boston suffered last year with the loss of their trigger man in Phil Kessel. The match couldn't be more perfect. Assuming Savard stays puts (and even if he doesn't), the Bruins have plenty of options down the center who can dish the puck to Horton on a nightly basis. Don't be surprised to see Horton approach 40 goals in Boston next season if he's healthy.
3. Jaroslav Halak
Halak escaped a dysfunctional goalie situation in Montreal to join a Blues team that should be back in the playoff hunt next season. St. Louis has a good stable of defensemen that helped Chris Mason put up some decent numbers last year. Halak proved last season that he's an upgrade over Mason, and for the first time in his career, he's unopposed in net. Expect big things for Halak this year, without the soap opera with Price to distract and eat in into his playing time.
4. Dan Ellis
Ellis had a short run of glory in Nashville before being bumped from the crease by Pekka Rinne last season. He figured to see very little playing time in Nashville going forward. However, with Niittimaki moving on from Tampa, that leaves a golden opportunity for Ellis to have a second crack at stardom. He'll have to battle Mike Smith for honors, and may ultimately split the crease in 2010-11. Either way, he's in a better situation today. Tampa's defense has become respectable and should continue to improve this year, so Ellis will have adequate support in front of him, even if it's a step down from the protection he saw in Nashville.
5. Paul Martin
Martin has never been a top fantasy option on defense; however, going to Pittsburgh has a tendency to change things for a player. The Penguins will still be looking to Goligoski and Letang to pick up the slack for Gonchar, but neither has proven they're ready yet. Martin should get some opportunities to carry the puck and hand it off to the powerful Penguin offense, which can only help his point totals. Martin peaked at 37 points in his sophomore season of 2005. Expect him to get back to that level and more with Pittsburgh next year.
6. Andrew Raycroft
Raycroft makes this list, simply because he goes from having no fantasy value, to having some potential value this season. In Vancouver, he was relegated to monthly cameos behind Luongo. In Dallas, the only thing standing between him and a starting role is Lehtonen's health. That's pretty good odds for the former Calder winner who has roamed from town to town since the lockout. Consider him for a bench role on your roster, or simply keep him in mind for when Lehtonen faces his next injury.
7. Dustin Byfuglien
Byfuglien's stock could go either way with his move to Atlanta. On one hand, he faces a major drop in surrounding talent. After peaking in the playoffs with regular time next to the likes of Toews and Kane, Byfuglien will be on his own in Atlanta. The good news is, he's fully capable of being the man. Most of the highlights he generated this spring were powerful individual efforts that he should be able to recreate with a blue sweater on. The positive side of this move for Byfuglien involves his role with his new club. In Chicago, he was juggled from line to line, and from offense to defense, depending on the opponent, the needs, and the alignment of the stars. In Atlanta, he can expect to get a regular shift on the top line as the team's go-to power forward. It's a no-brainer that he should top his career high of 36 points in his debut season with the Thrashers.
8. Ray Whitney
Whitney has been a fairly consistent depth option on fantasy rosters for many years now. His numbers dipped last season, along with just about everyone in Carolina. He now finds himself on a Phoenix team on the rise, yet hurting for offensive power. Whitney still has a season or two of decent production to give, and should be a good fit with the Coyotes on their top line. He should rebound into the 65-70 point range next year, which would easily make him the leading scoring in Phoenix.
Going Down
1. Chris Mason
The bad news for Mason came in June when Halak showed up to steal his stall in the locker room. Mason had a strong 30-win performance last season, but found himself looking for work when Halak arrived. The good news came July 1 when he signed a deal in Atlanta, where he'll battle Pavelec for the starting job. The Thrashers are building a better team, so there is potential for fantasy value with Mason in the future; however, at least for next season, the stock price has fallen here.
2. Kurtis Foster
Foster made a courageous comeback in Tampa Bay last season, posting a career high 42 points, which positioned him as a valuable fantasy option at the draft table. Moving to Edmonton won't do much to help his numbers, as there is no comparable talent to match what he worked last season with the Lightning. Keep him in mind as a depth defenseman, but don't count on another 40 point output.
3. Evgeni Nabokov
Just about anything at this point has to be considered a downgrade for Nabokov's fantasy value next season. After years of putting up consistent top notch numbers, he finds himself leaving the comfort of the San Jose crease for the unknown. And most of the potential doors have been closing around him. Teams with opening for a number one goalie have started to fill those roles (Philly, Tampa, Atlanta, St. Louis, Montreal). Pending some surprise move from a team like Washington, it's almost certain that his value will dive for next year.
4. Dennis Wideman
Fantasy owners already had question marks regarding Wideman's value heading into next season. Now that he's moved from Boston to Florida, you have to put even more doubt into his worth. Wideman struggled mightily for the first half of last season before going on a great run down the stretch. Now that he's in hockey purgatory down south on a team with few scoring options, 30 points may be the ceiling for next year.
5. Sergei Gonchar
Leaving the Penguins for anyone has to have some negative impact on a player's fantasy value, but don't expect a sudden collapse from Gonchar. He put up great numbers with a below average Capitals team before coming to Pittsburgh, and as long as he's healthy, he should be the same steady point producer for the Senators. He may have slipped from the top 5 on the draft list, but don't knock him down too much further, or you'll be missing out.
6. Johan Hedberg
Hedberg has made a decent career as a fill in goaltender. Apart from his early success in Pittsburgh, he's hung around, filling in for injured goalies and doing a decent job at it. He managed to put up some good stats last season in Atlanta and made it into the fantasy picture for parts of last season. Now, despite joining a better team, he's relegated himself to cameo appearances behind Brodeur. His minimal fantasy value just went to zero.
No Change
It's hard to justify all the fuss that was made over Jokinen the past couple years at the trade deadline. News of him returning to Calgary barely registered on July 1, as fans have come to realize that he's not the player he was hyped to be. He didn't catch fire in his first run in Calgary and made no significant impact in New York, so don't expect a return to the Flames to get him back to the point-a-game player he once was.
Kubina returns to Tampa Bay after a few years absence. He's been a fairly steady 35-40 point man for the past decade, and there's no reason to believe that he'll fare much different than that coming back to the Lightning. Age, not location, is the factor with Kubina.
As I'm writing this, Kovalchuk is still a free agent. Unless he packs his bags and heads to the KHL, it probably won't matter much where he lands. The top teams don't have room for him, and he's proven he can score as a 1-man show. No matter where he ends up, he'll be a top fantasy option, so pencil him in on your top 10 and worry about the color of his sweater later. (Provided it's an NHL sweater).
by chewy
29. June 2010 09:05
The first week of July is always a busy time in the hockey universe in terms of player movement. It has evolved into a Mini Me of the Trade Deadline. While the top stories this year will center around the likes of Kovalchuk, Gonchar and Hamhuis, in terms of fantasy hockey, these deals will have little impact on where those players will rank on your draft list. The real shakeup will come in the crease. Just try and put together a top 20 list of goalies for next season's draft today and you'll find that you can't possibly make sense of it at this point. The next two weeks will bring that picture into focus as RFAs and UFAs find their new homes. Here are the players and situations to watch as you start to formulate your early favorites for next year's draft:
1. Evgeni Nabokov
Nabokov is the obvious big name in the pool waiting to find a new home. For the past decade, Nabokov has consistently been one of the top fantasy options in the game. The question now to be answered is how much of that success came from being Shark. We saw this past Winter how he struggled in net playing behind a Team Russia who provided little defensive help in front of him. If he were to land on a high flying offensive team with little support, such as Washington, his numbers could take a dive. The early rumblings have the Flyers as a possible destination. If that plays out, you can promote Nabokov into the top 3 next season. If Leighton and Boucher can put up Brodeur-like numbers for Philly, Nabokov could vie for the Vezina in orange.
2. Chris Mason
Mason had a very good year for the Blues in 2009-10, so it was a bit of a surprise when St. Louis landed Halak earlier this month. That move leaves Mason looking for work, despite finishing near the top of the league in wins, and putting up above average numbers in GAA and save percentage. He's in the prime of his career and has been a consistent performer for the past 5 years in the NHL. He's managed to do well as both a starter, and in splitting time, so he could be added to a team as a 1B option. At this point, he figures to be a decent #2 option, but that stock could rise or fall next week.
3. Marty Turco
Since his implied dismissal from the Stars, the general perception is that Turco is somewhat over the hill. However, a look at his driver's license will show he's actually younger than Brodeur and Thomas, and has just one candle over the likes of Kiprisoff and Vokoun. In other words, don't write off the 9 year Stars veteran just yet. The last two seasons haven't been good to Turco, but consider his surroundings. If he finds himself on a playoff-caliber team as he enters free agency, he could once again be a name worth drafting this fall.
4. Michael Leighton
Depending on what day it was in May and June, you wouldn’t be surprised to see Leighton ranked in the top 10 or the mid 30's. Depending on what the Flyers do in July, you can expect the same kind of volatility in his stock this fall. The Flyers are expected to make a move in crease, as they are each summer, but don't be shocked if they decide to give Leighton a crack at a full season. If that plays out, you can shoot him up your draft list.
5. Washington Capitals
If things play out as expected, Jose Theodore will be moving on to a backup role in another town, leaving Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth around to squabble over the rights for a 40 win season. Who gets the prize is anyone's guess. It's always a good bet to draft a goalie from the President's Trophy winning team, but this may just be the exception. Varlamov has yet to prove he's worthy of the job, and Neuvirth has a total of 22 NHL games on his resume. Drafting a Washington goalie may be a major gamble this fall.
6. Antero Niittymaki
Niittymaki was solid in net for Tampa Bay last season, despite the turmoil surrounding the team. With Yzerman there to settle things down with the franchise, the Lightning net may be an attractive place to be going forward. Niittymaki is unrestricted, but there doesn't seem to be a better fit for him than where he is right now. If he stays put and claims the #1 job, he could be a decent option as a #1 guy next year.
A few other names to watch next week:
- Dan Ellis - Ellis lost his job to Pekka Rinne, but still has the potential to be a #1 goalie in the next couple of years. Keep him on your radar.
- Jose Theodore - he's out in D.C., but still has some games left in him. Could see him emerging as a #1 once more.
- Vesa Toskala - it could be the end of the line for Toskala. He expects to be a #1 goalie. Maybe in another league...
by chewy
8. April 2010 16:34
You just can't win in fantasy hockey if you don't draft strong goaltending. That rule is doubled when it comes to playoff pools. More than any position, you really have to do your homework and make sure you're picking the right guys to protect the net. To make things more interesting this season, it seems that about half of the potential starters out there have little to no playoff experience. Naturally, we're hear to lend a hand.
With such a variety of formats when it comes to playoff pools, it's hard to establish clear criteria for ranking netminders. Since many pools allow you re-pick after each round, I won't place much extra weight on the goalies that I believe will be around beyond the first round. We'll focus on likely Round 1 matchups and take a look at which goalies will deliver the Wins, Saves and Shutouts.
1) Ryan Miller - BUF
The Sabres are flying high and Miller is still riding the Olympic wave. Since the break, Miller is 10-4-1 with a 2.40 GAA and .917. The real promising stat is in front of him. The Sabres have scored more goals than any other team down the stretch, so he's getting the help he needs to win games. Regardless of who they face in Round 1, Miller and the Sabres will be one tough team to beat. You can count on him to step his play up when it matter. Draft him if you can.
2) Martin Brodeur - NJ
The temptation is to look at Brodeur and the Devils and think that they just can't do it again. He's too old. They blew it last year, etc. Just remember who we're talking about here. Brodeur is the greatest goalie ever to play and he's still an amazing player. He led the league in shutouts and wins, as he does every season. The Devils are a well balanced team who match up well against anyone in the lower half of the Eastern Conference. They even went 4-0 against the Pens this year. Don't hesitate to make him your #1.
3) Antti Niemi - CHI
Until he gets in there and wins a couple of games, the doubters will point to goaltending as the potential weak link in a powerful Blawkhawk lineup. That's a bit perplexing, given the fact that only 4 playoff teams allowed less goals than Chicago this season. Niemi's GAA of 2.23 ties him with Ryan Miller for 2nd best in the league (behind Tuukka Rask). His 7 shutouts in 37 games is also pretty impressive. Niemi has clearly ousted Huet as the goalie of choice in the Windy City and he's a good a bet as there is to lead your fantasy team through the first round.
4) Evgeni Nabokov - SJ
Forget 2009. And the 10 seasons before that. This team made enough changes to largely forget about last season's first round tragedy. They'll most likely face either Colorado or LA in the first round, and neither team is running up the score lately. The problem is that Nabokov hasn't been on top of his game lately. Since the break, his record is a shaky 8-7. His other vitals are even more concerning: 2.83 GAA and a measley .902 save percentage. If you're drafting Nabokov, you're banking on him getting his 4 wins in round 1, which he certainly should. Just don't be surprised if he's yanked at least once in the process. Seems like he's still hurting from the pounding he took in his last Olympic appearance.
5) Marc-Andre Fleury - PIT
Sure the Pens have sputtered a bit lately, but are you going to bet against them losing in the first round? I didn't think so. Fleury has taken this team to the Finals for the past two seasons, leaving no questions about his ability to perform when it counts. Since the break, his GAA has been OK at a 2.64; however, his save percentage is cause for concern at .891. If your league heavily favors Wins, he's your guy. If goals allowed play a bigger role, you may want to consider the next couple of options.
6) Jimmy Howard - DET
Sure the Wings are heading into the playoffs without home ice advantage for the first time in forever, but this is truly the tale of two seasons for this squad. They played the first 2/3 of the year with a makeshift roster as they dealt with lengthy injuries to some key players. The team is back and healthy ,and they're featuring a new look between the pipes. Osgood has officially been relegated to the bench (for now), as Howard has been on a tear. Since the break, he's won more games than any other goalie, and his GAA is approaching 2.00 over that span. He's obviously new to post-season play, but there's enough calming influences in front of him, that he shouldn't miss a beat.
7) Jose Theodore - WAS
There has been no official announcement made regarding who will be the go-to guy in Washington, but it's a pretty good bet that Theodore will get first crack at it. The question is, will we see a repeat of 2009 when Theodore was pulled before the first week was done? Consider this: Theodore hasn't lost a game in regulation since January 12th. Since then, he's put up 19 Wins. As with Fleury, don't count on seeing too many shutouts coming out of the Capital. However, since the break, he's had a very respectable 2.44 GAA and .922 save percentage. If there wasn't the history with Varlamov, Theodore would be ranked higher.
8) Roberto Luongo - VAN
What to do with Luongo? My reason for holding him back so far is the potential first round matchup with Detroit. If that plays out, I wouldn't want to take my chances with him. If he ends up facing any other team, you can probably slide him up a notch or two. In terms of numbers, Luongo has been downright awful since winning Olympic Gold. With a GAA of 3.42 and a save percentage of .874, it's a wonder this team is even in the playoffs, let alone starting off on home ice. Luongo has a lot to prove when it comes to playoff success and until that happens, I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Beyond the top 8 here, your best bet is to go with the team you think has the best chance of winning their series. Bryzgalov, Quick, Rinne, and even Boucher are all viable options. I wouldn't put much faith in the likes of Anderson, Halak, Elliot, or whoever else makes in the East.
by chewy
10. March 2010 10:04
It's been a relatively slow season in terms of significant rookie impact in the fantasy hockey realm this year. The past few seasons have been extraordinary in terms of rookie showings. Consider: Steve Mason and Bobby Ryan in 09. Patrick Kane and Nicklas Backstrom in 08. Malkin and Stastny in 07. And, of course, Ovechkin and Crosby in 06. All of these players were major players in their debut seasons. While 09-10 hasn't produced a similar impact player over the long haul, there have been stretches of greatness from rookies here and there. Often times, the cream of the crop will rise during the last 6 weeks of the season. So let's take a look at which rookies figure to have the biggest fantasy impact over the final month of the season:
1. Matt Duchesne (F - COL)
Duchesne is looking more and more like a lock for the Calder Trophy, as he's the one player who has performed consistently well from day one of the season. While his numbers aren't staggering, he's already eclipsed 20 goals and has a shot at 30. Since the break, he has 5 points in 5 games, and he's piling up the shots. You can count on him being a steady producer to finish out the season.
2. Tyler Myers (D - BUF)
Myers may be the one guy in this group who has most exceeded expectations. Both from an all around play and from a fantasy perspective, the giant blueliner has been a pleasant surprise. He's on pace for 10 goals and 40 points this year, which is a decent showing for a defenseman of any age. His production has slowed a bit recently; however, he's still logging around 25 minutes a game. Look for him to continue his pace of .5 pts per game.
3. Jimmy Howard (G - DET)
After years of anticipation and promise, the baton has officially been passed on to Howard to protect the Redwing net. A good percentage of NHL fans have never seen a Detroit team miss the playoffs, but Howard has been one of the few bright spots on the Redwings roster. He's on pace for 30 wins, despite playing on an average team, and despite starting the season as the backup to Osgood. He is facing an inordinate number of shots each night, but that has only served to bolster his save percentage. The Wings are bound to tighten things up over the final month, now that their roster is healthy, so don't be surprised to see Howard put a few shutouts on the board.
4. T.J. Galiardi (F - COL)
Check your free agent list in your league. There's a spankin' good chance that Galiardi is still sitting there in the corner, waiting for someone to ask him to dance. If you're looking for a partner to fill out your offense, consider the Avalanche rookie. While a host of other rookies shot out of the gate in Denver, he started slow, then spent a few weeks on the IR with ankle problems. Since the start of December, his role in Colorado and his production have started to soar. Since the Olympic break, he's tallied 6 points in 5 games. In fact, he's played at near a point a game pace over the past 20 games, as he's bounced around between the top two lines.
5. John Tavares (F - NYI)
It's been a confusing season for the man preordained to win the Calder this year. He came out of the gate on fire, then completely disappeared for a couple of months, while other Islander rookies took the stage. Since the break, Tavares has started to show signs of life once again. He logged 20 minutes last night (the first time since December), and knocked in a goal. His shot totals have picked up since the break as well, including a 7 shot performance against Ottawa. Most fantasy owners have benched or dumped him at this point, so you may want to roll the dice on him making a late season push. At a minimum, you can expect another 6 or 7 seven goals over the next month.
6. Tuukka Rask (G - BOS)
The only thing holding Rask back from being a major fantasy hockey goalie is the contract of Tim Thomas. The Bruins committed to Thomas in a big way last summer, despite the fact that Rask has shown he's ready to take the #1 job. Over his past 10 games, he's recorded a 2.2 GAA and .920 save percentage. He's currently dealing with a knee injury, but once he returns, he should be a viable #2 option in net. If you're in a keeper league, now's the time to make a deal of Rask and set yourself up for years of fantasy gold.
7. Niclas Bergfors (F - ATL)
Bergfors was a promising prospect in New Jersey. He's now a productive player in Atlanta. Since arriving with the Thrashers, he has tallied 8 points in 10 games, including 6 goals. He's in a much more prominent role in his new environment, and he seems to be answering the call. He's still available in most leagues, so if you need the help, he could provide a late season push for your fantasy roster.
8. Michael Del Zotto (D - NYR)
Much like his former Oshawa/London teammate John Tavares (see above), Del Zotto has had an up and down rookie campaign. He stormed out of the gate, then disappeared from the New York City lights. He just returned from the IR and looks like he may be back in business. He's recording big minutes, including top power play honors, and has recorded 2 points in his first 3 games back.
by chewy
3. February 2010 22:24
As we approach the Olympic break, it's time to start making those last minute tweaks to your fantasy hockey roster to prepare for the playoffs. Often times, one of the toughest decisions facing a GM is letting go of a guy that was drafted high but having a subpar season. Sometimes we'll hang on to him simple because of his name and the foolish hope that surely he has to recover any time now. Here are a handful of players that it's time to write off for the 2008-09 season. To dampen your pain, blame me if things turn around for these guys down the stretch. For reference, I'll include the player's draft position in my CBS Platinum league (which tends to attract people who have some clue what they're doing).
Marc Savard (F - BOS) - Round 5
I like Savard, so it pains me to put him to the curb, but there's only so many roster spots, and I don't have room for the terminally injured. In the first 17 weeks of hockey, he's produced points in only 8. Even when healthy, he's gone on lengthy, uncharacteristic scoring droughts. He just returned from a knee injury and has a couple of assists to show for it, but don't let that sucker you into false hope, Mr. Blue Sky. Amazingly, Savard is still owned in 98% of CBS leagues. That's a lot of blind faith floating out there. If you've got him, trade him for a depth player who will give a few points every week instead of waiting for a return to glory that probably won't come until next season.
Steve Mason (G - COB) - Round 2
Perhaps the biggest fantasy disappointment of the season is Mason. He was looked upon as one the top goalie options going into the season, after his tremendous rookie campaign. Plus, Columbus was on the upswing and Ken Hitchcock has a knack for deflating GAAs for his goalies. How did things go so wrong? Now, with Hitchcock gone, the team sinking further, and Mason no longer the undisputed #1 goalie, why are owners still holding on to this toxic asset? Time to let him go. If you can find a sucker to trade with, take the money and run. Otherwise, drop him outright. No value left to be found this season.
Dennis Wideman (D - BOS) - Round 5
Wideman was one of the biggest fantasy surprises last season, so his value was perhaps artificially inflated come draft time. The Bruins looked poised to rack up the goals again, and many figured Wideman to keep pace. At this point, if he's still on your roster, you're probably not concerned with the playoffs. Go back to preparing for your baseball draft.
Devon Setoguchi (F - SJ) - Round 6
Once again, the victim of artificially high expectations. Everyone assumed he would get his time with Big Joe and pot another 30 goals. Instead, he's been a non-factor in San Jose and is on pace for a whopping 30 points. He's still on 82% of rosters in CBS. That's just silly.
Brad Boyes (F - STL) - Round 7
Boyes ranks in the top 5 for most disappointing players of the season. That said, he's the one player on this list that you might want to grant amnesty to for a week or two more. Reason being: shots on goal. Although he has only 1 goal since Christmas, his shot totals are looking better. However, if he goes another two weeks without scoring, flog that horse and find a better option.
Chris Osgood (D - DET) - Round 4
I hesitate to put him on this list due to the obvious. If you drafted him, and you take the time to read my blog, you dropped him a long time ago. That is, unless you're still holding on to that belief that he's the playoff goalie and they're bound to play him down the stretch to get him ready. Fool. I'm not an Osgood hater, but I know when a player has reached the end of the road.
For good measure, here are some additional fantasy disappointment that hurt our feelings, but not enough to completely turns our backs on (yet):
Tim Thomas (G - BOS) - Round 2
Disappointing season seems to be the theme in Boston this year.
Cam Ward (G - CAR) - Round 2
Disappointing season is definitely the theme in Carolina this year.
Dion Phaneuf (D - TOR) - Round 3
Just glad the other guy drafted before me in Round 3. I got Shea Weber.
Marty Turco (G - DAL) - Round 5
If you drafted him that early, shame on you. His decline has been graphed for several seasons.
Alexander Frolov (F - LA) - Round 8
Wait. Is he still in the NHL? Put him in the you-should-definitely-have-dropped-him-already list.
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