The Shark Blog
by chewy
18. January 2012 08:33
We're now into the
2nd half of the 2011-12 NHL campaign.
Many things have changed in the 2nd quarter that are worth reviewing to
help us project what we should expect to close out the rest of the year. To start, we'll take a quick glance at the
point standings at the end of the first quarter (end of November):
POINT LEADERS
1. Phil Kessel - 31
2. Claude Giroux -
29
3. Joffrey Lupul -
29
4. Kris Versteeg -
26
5. Thomas Vanek - 26
6. Nicklas Backstrom
- 25
7. Jonathan Toews -
25
8. Jason Pominville
- 25
9. Daniel Sedin - 25
10. Henrik Sedin -
25
Obviously, injuries
have played a part in the demise of some players from the top of the heap, but
a few things jump out right away:
- Kris Versteeg (and the rest
of the Florida resurgence) has fizzled out significantly
- The hot start in Buffalo
(Vanek / Pominville) is a memory
- Evgeni Malkin and Steven
Stamkos have surged in the 2nd quarter to the top of the current point
race.
GOAL LEADERS
In terms of goals,
the picture hasn't changed all that dramatically. The top five are pretty consistent:
Then:
1. Kessel - 16
2. Stamkos - 14
3. Neal - 13
4. Giroux - 13
5. Toews - 13
Now:
1. Stamkos - 31
2. Kessel - 24
3. Toews - 24
4. Neal - 24
5. Gaborik - 23
It's worth noting
here that while Giroux has kept up the point production, his goal totals have
dried up. He had just 5 in the 2nd
quarter. Meanwhile, Gaborik surged in
the 2nd Quarter, adding 13 to his total.
TOP 2nd QUARTER
PRODUCTION
So who were the
leaders over the past quarter of action in the NHL? A few names may come as a bit of a surprise:
1. Evgeni Malkin -
30
2. Pavel Datsyuk -
30
3. Matt Moulson - 30
4. Henrik Sedin - 28
5. John Tavares - 28
6. Ilya Kovalchuk -
27
7. Zach Parise - 27
8. Steven Stamkos -
27
9. Jason Spezza - 26
10. Jarome Iginla -
26
T10. Daniel
Alfredsson - 26
The biggest surprise
for me on this list is Matt Moulson. The
guy has flat out come on in the past month.
After the first quarter, he was sitting on just 12 points, good for 128th
place in the NHL. He's now risen to 9th
place in the league in total points.
Taveres and Parenteau have also enjoyed quite a resurgence on the Island
in recent weeks.
The Devil superstars
have also made an impressive run as of late.
Kovalchuk went from 13 to 40 points, while Parise rose from 12 to 39.
RISE OF THE DEFENSE
Turning our
attention to defense, here are your leaders for the 2nd quarter:
1. Erik Karlsson -
23
2. Dennis Wideman -
18
3. Kevin Bieksa - 18
4. Alex Edler - 17
5. Shea Weber - 17
6. Michael Del Zotto
- 16
7. Dan Boyle - 15
8. Kimmo Timmonen -
14
9. Brian Campbell -
14
10. Mark Streit - 13
The biggest surprise
on this list has to be Dennis Wideman (WAS).
At the end of the first quarter, he had a respectable 13 points, good
for 20th in the league. Since Mike Green
went permanent IR, Wideman has assumed the role of point producer and has
surged into 5th in the league among defenseman.
WHERE HAVE YOU GONE?
So that's the good
news. Now what of the bad? Most of the major drop offs on the
leaderboard can be attributed directly to injury (Letang, …). Some falls do not have the luxury of that
excuse. Here are some of the biggest
disappearing acts over the 2nd quarter:
- Marc-Andre Bergeron (D-TB) -
Bergeron started the season on fire, ending the first quarter in 3rd among
defensemen with 19 points in 22 games.
He has just 2 points since then.
2 points.
- Alex Burmistrov (WPG) - After
a nice start to the season, Burmistrov has amassed a mere 5 point in the
2nd quarter
- Matt Duchene (COL) - 9 goals
and 17 points in the first quarter was a decent start. He's added just 3 goals and 4 assists
since then.
- Ryan Smyth (EDM) - Smyth was
one of the biggest stories to start the year with 12 goals in the first
quarter. Since then, he has just 3
tallies.
GOALIES
Finally, we'll turn
to the net where there has been a significant swing in production.
Q1 Win Leaders:
1. Fleury - 13
2. Lehtonen - 13
3. Howard - 13
4. Thomas - 11
5. Crawford - 11
Q2 Win Leaders:
1. Anderson - 14
2. Howard - 14
3. Rinne - 14
4. Luongo - 11
5. Kiprusoff - 11
The biggest story
here has to be the re-emergence of Craig Anderson in Ottawa. He was among the worst at this position
through December. Over the past month,
he has been unstoppable, going 9-1-1.
Similarly, Mikka Kiprusoff has breathed new life into his season since
the weather turned cold.
For more on daily
fantasy hockey, check out my articles on the Fanduel Insider at http://www.fanduel.com/insider
If you want to try
daily fantasy hockey on Fanduel,
use this link:
http://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=landsharkhockey&cnl=da
by chewy
22. December 2011 09:03
We're just about ready to wrap up NHL action heading into Christmas. Here's some last minute stats to help you set those rosters before we enter the weekend lockdown.
Who's Hot
Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
Malkin has taken his
game to the next level, as he's prone to do when Crosby is out. He has 8 points in the last two games and 15
in the last 6. He's a must start every
chance you get on Fanduel this week.
Marian Hossa (DET)
Hossa has points in
7 straight games, totaling up 4 goals and 8 assists over that span. Everything is clicking right now for the
Hawks, and Hossa is a huge part of the explosion on the offensive side.
Olli Jokinen (CGY)
He's wildly
inconsistent, but right now, something is working for Flame's center. He has 3 goals and 4 assists over the last 4
games. Looking back over the last 10
games, he's racked up 14 points.
Wayne Simmonds (PHI)
Simmonds has been a
steady producer in terms of goals over the past few weeks. He's tallied 6 over the last 9 games, despite
getting third line minutes. If he can
wiggle his way up to the top two lines, he could be a big-time fantasy producer
at some point.
Matt Niskanen (D-PIT)
Niskanen is on the
best run of his career right now, garnering a buttload of assists on Malkin's
back. He has 9 points over the last 8
games. He had just 5 points in the first
25 games of the season.
Alex Burrows (VAN)
Burrows is on a roll
right now playing sidekick to the Twins.
With goals in 4 straight games, he's racked up 6 points over that span.
Jared Cowen (D-OTT)
Thanks mostly to a
huge four point game against the Pens last week, Cowen has put up some
impressive numbers for the Sens recently.
He has 8 points in 10 games and comes cheap on Fanduel.
Roberto Luongo (G-VAN)
Luongo hasn't lost a
game in regulation since December 1st.
He's deflated his GAA below 2.5 over the past month, thanks to a
terrific stretch of wins.
Who's Cold
Nick Foligno (OTT)
Two weeks ago,
Foligno was the hottest item in Canada.
Since a fight-filled encounter with Vancouver on Dec. 10th, he's gone
back to third-line obscurity. Just 1
assist over the last five games has purged him from fantasy relevancy.
Matt Duchene (COL)
Duchene continues to
be up and down this year. After a decent
stretch of games two weeks ago, he's gone cold.
No points in the last three games, and just 3 shots on goal.
Nathan Horton (BOS)
While the Bruins
have been on a fine run in mid December, Horton has been absent, at least on
the scoresheet. He has a mere two points
over the last eight games for Boston.
His playing time is down below 14 minutes a game, and he's averaging
about 1 shot per contest.
Tomas Fleischmann (FLA)
Where have all the
points gone, Tomas? The fantastic first
quarter is starting to fade, as he's now gone five games without a point.
Ryan Smyth (EDM)
Just one assist in 7
games for Smyth. The early season
heroics are old news.
Dan Girardi (D-NYR)
After a fantastic
start, Girardi has come back to Earth.
No points in 9 games.
Who's Hurt
- Adam Larsson (D-NJ) -
expected to miss a week for personal reasons
- Al Montoya (G-NYI) -
concussion symptoms
- Milan Michalek (OTT) -
returned to practice, but not yet cleared to play
- Claude Giroux (PHI) -
returned from concussion to regain the scoring lead
- Martin Havlat (SJ) - out for
a couple months with a lower body injury
- Martin St. Louis (TB) -
returned on Wed.
Value Picks of the Week
Here are some guys
currently undervalued on Fanduel that you should cash in on in the short term:
Jonathan Toews (C-CHI)
While $7,700 isn't
exactly cheap, it is when you consider what you're getting for that price. 4.5 FPPG on the year, and he's tearing up the
league right now with the rest of the Chicago offense. Must play.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C-EDM)
Seems like the
rookie is destined to spend the entire season on the value list. Still priced at just $6,600, despite offering
3.7 FPPG.
Derek Stepan (C-NYR)
Few options are
better under 6k. He's sitting at $5,700,
despite racking up 12 points in 10 games.
Joffrey Lupul (LW-TOR)
Lupul will run you a
mere $6,900, despite being near the top of the leaderboard in the NHL. 4.5 FPPG makes him a steal.
Mason Raymond (LW-VAN)
Since returning from
a season-starting injury, he's been steady, generating 3.7 FPPG. He'll only cost you $5,800 on Fanduel right
now.
Milan Michalek (RW-OTT)
Michelek should be
back in uniform and challenging for the goal-scoring title soon. He's underpriced at just $6,400 for now.
For more on daily
fantasy hockey, check out my articles on the Fanduel Insider at http://www.fanduel.com/insider
If you want to try
daily fantasy hockey on Fanduel,
use this link:
http://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=landsharkhockey&cnl=da
by chewy
16. December 2011 08:03
Yes, Winter is
officially approaching in a week or so, and it's cold in most corners of the
hockey world. The weather has seemed to
rub off on a number of fantasy options that started the season on a roll, but
have since gone ice cold. It's easy to
get lazy and assume the top stars from October and November are still rolling
at the same pace. This week I'll
highlight a number of players who, for reasons other than injury, have dried up
in terms of daily fantasy production on Draftstreet.
GOALIES
We'll start at the
most important position with some guys who have struggled to put up wins in
recent weeks:
Jhonas Enroth (BUF)
Miller's head injury
set the stage for Enroth to go on a run and earn some fantasy points. It just didn't happen. He dropped 3 straight games, averaging 3
goals against. Now, Miller is back and
Enroth is starting to look like just another average backup on a struggling
team.
Jonathan Quick (LA)
Like most of the
Kings, Quick has gone into a serious funk.
After an impressive start to the season, he's become unreliable of late,
and is splitting time with Bernier as the Kings try to find an answer. He's been tagged with a loss in three
straight games, with a GAA over 3 in that span.
Perhaps the coaching change will wake him up.
Corey Crawford (CHI)
Two weeks ago,
Crawford was among the league leaders in wins with 12. He hasn't added to that total since Dec.
2nd. Over his last several starts, he
was benefitting tremendously from a Hawks offensive surge, as he was allowing
close to 4 goals per game. Emery has the
hot hand right now, putting Crawford on the bench for the time being. The Hawks have a tradition of changing number
1 goalies about this point in the season, and Emery is certainly capable of
holding that position. Tough times for
Crawford.
Nikolai Khabibulin (EDM)
Since going the
first 9 games without a regulation loss, Khabibulin has predictably down to
earth. He has just two wins since that
time. He's now rotating in net with
Dubnyk with mixed results.
FORWARDS
Loui Eriksson (DAL)
Call him the Ice
Man. After a fantastic start to the
season, it was looking like Eriksson could challenge for the Rocket
Richard. Something changed mid-November. He now has just 1 goal in the pas 13
games. He's without a point in five
straight.
Jamie Benn (DAL)
The Dallas woes
aren't limited to Loui. His center has a
similar storyline. Just 1 point in the
last 7 games, after a promising first quarter.
Jordan Staal (PIT)
It's tough to
explain what's happening with Jordan Staal right now, and it couldn't come at a
worse time for wingers in Pittsburgh with Crosby on the shelf again. After a hot stretch in November that saw him
tally 6 goals and 2 assists in 8 games, he's been held without a point in 6
games.
Patrick Marleau (SJ)
It was beginning to
look like Marleau may never find the scoresheet again. His goal on Tuesday night snapped a 7-game
pointless streak. The once reliable
Shark center hasn't recorded an assist since November 19th.
Alex Ovechkin (WAS)
Not that he got off
to a particularly strong start, but it's worth noting that the coaching change
in Washington has done little to light a match here. He has a measley 7 points over his last 15
games. The shots keep coming, but the
points continue to elude the once-dominant winger.
Thomas Vanek (BUF)
Vanek came back from
the opening week in Europe with aspirations of leading the league in goals,
having been there 8 times in the first 10 games. Lately, he's struggled to put points on the
board. He has just 2 in the past 6
games.
DEFENSE
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (PHO)
Larson had become a
nice default option on defense through the first part of the season. He was/is priced very low, and the 5 goals
through through 20 games was a fine pace.
He's now staggered through 9 games without a point. He season total of 8 PIMs further hurt his
fantasy value on Draftstreet.
Alex Pietrangelo (STL)
The coaching change
in St. Louis has done wonders for the Blues in terms of defense, but not in
terms of fantasy production. Pietrangelo
is a prime example of that. He was producing
a fair amount of value on Draftstreet before Hitchcock arrived. He now has gone 6 games without a single
point.
Josh Gorges (MON)
Another one of those
cheap point getters on the D has dried up.
No points in 8 games makes him a hard sell, despite the bargain price
tag.
Sheldon Souray (DAL)
13 points in 29
games isn't a bad total for a defensemen, particularly one who was banished to
the AHL last season. However, all of
those points came in the first 14 games.
The cold streak now stands at 15 games and counting.
Drew Doughty (LA)
Doughty is certainly
leading the running for most disappointing fantasy option this season. He has just one lousy assist in the last 14
games, despite logging over 25 minutes a game.
This one is hard to explain.
For more insight
into daily fantasy sports, check out more of my posts on http://www.Rotogrinders.com.
Also, if you want to
try daily fantasy hockey on Draftstreet,
use the promo code "LANDSHARK" for a bonus on your deposit.
http://www.draftstreet.com/register.aspx?r=LANDSHARK
by chewy
19. July 2011 07:22
It's been a couple
of months now since the fantasy hockey season ended. Plenty of time to gloat in your championships
or lick your wounds (I've done a little of both, being in so many leagues). Now that the dust has settled, it's a good
opportunity to look back on this past season and draw out some lessons from the
past season. If you've been playing
fantasy hockey for many years, few of these should come as shocking
revelations; however, even the 20 year experts need to be reminded that fantasy
seasons rarely pan out the way you script them at the draft table.
Lesson 1 -- Good Old Goalies can be Good Again
After claiming the
title of best goalie in 2008-09, many fantasy players and experts wrote Thomas
off at the start of last season, under the assumption that he would be destined
to back up to the fresh, new Tuukka Rask.
As I wrote in last fall's preview -- "Rask is a sexy-bold pick for
your starting goalie this fall, but don't get overconfident here. Thomas didn't exactly lose his job, as much
as Rask earned it. Things could easily
go the other way this time around."
And go the other
way, they did, from the start of the season through game 7 of the Finals. By no means did I predict Thomas to have the
season he did (I had him ranked 20th). But
even my cautious optimism over Thomas's outlook was stifled by the court of
public opinion (and his age). Instead of
seeing Thomas for what he is (a quality goaltender who happens to have a lot of
experience), we all assumed that his first stumble would mean his inevitable
downfall.
So what do we take
from this? Is Thomas the exceptional
exception, or part of rule to be considered when ranking your goalies this
fall? Consider, Thomas isn't the only
goalie to have a fantasy rebound in his late 30's and beyond. Consider what Roloson has done, or even
Brodeur following his injury comeback last spring. Bottom line here is that (outside of major
injuries) star goalies don't lose their power overnight. A bump in the road shouldn't cause us to
write a guy off as washed up. Keep this
in mind as you contemplate where to rank the likes of Kiprusoff, Backstrom, and
even Brodeur and Theodore this fall.
Lesson 2 -- Location Matters
As in marketing,
location clearly matters to hockey players.
This has become obvious on two fronts:
1. Strong fantasy
performers who change locations often suffer a setback, even when moving to a
"better situation". Consider a
few examples from last year:
- Ilya Kovalchuk's move to New
Jersey saw him drop to a lousy 60 points last season. Ruined my draft…
- Sergei Gonchar went from
fantasy stud in Pittsburgh to an embarrassment in Ottawa. 27 points with a -15.
- James Neal was a strong
goal-scoring option in Dallas, but completely went dry when he landed in
Pittsburgh.
Aside from Dustin
Byfuglien, can you think of any significant fantasy stars who fared better in
their first season in a new town? It's
rare and should be noted when deciding where to place guys like Mike Richards,
Brad Richards, and Jeff Carter in your draft rankings. Don't bet the farm on any of them to light it
up in their first go in a new sweater.
On the other side of
the story…
2. Struggling
players can often find new life in a new home.
You see this with
average fantasy options that suddenly burst onto the scene with a new club:
- Clarke MacArthur was
virtually unknown in Buffalo and Atlanta, but emerged as a solid fantasy
forward in Toronto
- Lubomir Visnovsky saw his
stock decline when he landed in Edmonton, but after recovering from injury
in 2009, he exploded in his first full season with the Ducks, registering
a whopping 68 points.
- Alex Tanguay had slowly slid
into irrelevance over the past couple seasons with Montreal and
Tampa. A move back to Calgary
sparked him to a 69-point performance last season.
So it makes sense to
keep an eye out for a few guys finding a new home in hopes of better fantasy
fortunes. In particular, give a bump to
Jakub Voracek landing in Philly, Simon Gagne moving to LA, and Devin Setoguchi
landing in Minnesota. Maybe even give an
outside hope to an old gun named Sheldon Souray in Dallas.
Lesson 3 -- The Top Rookies aren't always the Best
Rookies
Entering the 2010-11
season, all the attention (as it typically is) was on the top two picks: Taylor
Hall and Tyler Seguin. A few eyes were
glued to the likes of P.K. Subban as well, following his remarkable post-season
run last fall. In the crease, there were
high hopes for some rookies fighting for jobs, such as Crawford in Chicago,
Bernier in LA, and a couple youngsters in Washington. Once the season got moving and the dust
settled late in the year, none of these players (while most having respectable
seasons) finished in the top 3 for the Calder trophy. Logan Couture, Jeff Skinner, and Michael
Grabner were barely in the conversation at the start of last year. And that doesn't even count guys like Derek
Stepan, Cam Fowler, and Brad Marchand who all made noticeable fantasy
contributions this season, despite the lack of early press.
So what can we learn
from this? First of all, don't put too
much faith in drafting rookies. There
are too many factors, many of which are financial, that can throw off your plans. Also, more so than with established players,
you need to comb the waiver wire for rookies starting 2 to 4 weeks into the
season. It's at that point that teams
decide who's staying and who they plan to let ripen another year in the
AHL. Prior to that point, it's too much
of a risk to waste valuable draft picks on promises that rarely come true.
Lesson 4 -- Playoff momentum rarely carries into the
next season
You see this trend
every season, though in our hearts we like to pretend it doesn't exist. Each year at draft time, we give special
weight towards the playoff heroes of the previous spring, only to see them fall
flat. 2010-11 was no exception, so learn
well this rule. Look back at the playoff
leaders of 2010, particularly those who surprised with their numbers:
- Michael Cammalleri led all
players with 13 goals last spring, bounding him up the draft charts. He followed that up with a lousy 19 goal
regular season performance.
- Danny Briere finished 2nd in
goals and points in the 2010 playoffs.
68 points was a bit of a let down for fantasy owners this year.
- Simon Gagne sizzled with 9
playoff goals and followed that up with his 2nd straight 17-goal regular
season total.
- Most fantasy players expected
big numbers out of Ville Leino following his monster performance last
spring. 19 goals and 53 points did
not meet those expectations.
- In the pipes, Niemi, Halak,
Leighton, Rask, and Nabokov were the statistical leaders last spring. Did any of them help your fantasy team
this year?
So are we to assume
that a strong playoff performance means doom for a fantasy draft? Not necessarily. Superstars tend to put up big numbers in the
regular season as well as the playoffs.
No need to make corrections there.
The lesson learned here is not to put much, if any, weight in how a
player performs in the playoffs. It's a
different animal altogether. In other
words, don't artificially bump up the likes of Joel Ward, Sean Bergenheim,
Michael Ryder or Dwayne Roloson on your draft list this fall. Consider yourself warned.
by chewy
1. March 2011 09:01
Following perhaps the most uneventful trade deadline day in a decade, fantasy owners are left to wonder what impact (if any) will the 16 trades have on the remainder of the fantasy season. As last season proved, some of those low-profile deals can have a huge impact on the stretch, if you can snatch up the one or two players who most benefit from a change of address. Last season, Lee Stempniak infamously went on an incredible scoring run following his unheralded trade to the Coyotes. Not a single player in the top 100 of NHL scorers was dealt in the 24 hours leading up to the trade deadline (Boyes and Penner were the closest). That leaves plenty of options to consider who has the best chance of being this year's version of Mr. Stempniak. Here are the players to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks to see if they can repeat Lee's March run of 2010:
1. Niclas Bergfors (FLA) - Bergfors was a key piece of the Kovalchuk deal just a year ago, and actually outscored Kovalchuk after the move in 2010. Since the coaching change and arrival of a batch of new faces over the summer, Bergfors has struggled to put up points and even stay in the lineup in Atlanta. It's way too early to give up on this 1st round draft pick. It seems what he's really needing to jump start his career is playing time and decent center to feed him the puck. The first half of that equation should come immediately. He had been averaging just 10-12 minutes a game with the Thrashers. He should see significantly more than that with the Panthers, and with the extra minutes, you should expect to see some extra points on the way. The biggest problem may be finding some talent to help boost his totals. Should he get a look along side Stephen Weiss early on, Bergfors could be this year's Stempniak.
2. Dustin Penner (LA) - Any other year, Penner's move would have slid to page 2 of the trade news. With all the bigger names moving earlier in February, Penner stands out with potential for growth. He has shown in the past that he can be a scoring threat. So far this season, he's managed just 39 points in 62 games; however, he is on pace for 27 goals. His move to LA just might spur him on to crack the 30 goal plateau for the 2nd straight season. He leaves the young Oilers bunch for a group of teammates primed to make some noise down the stretch and in the playoffs. He may immediately see some time with the flashy playmaker Anze Kopitar, which is an upgrade over his former line mates in Edmonton. While we shouldn't expect a point-per-game pace from Penner, it's reasonable to expect his goal scoring pace to increase in his return to SoCal.
3. Chris Campoli (D-CHI) - Campoli is not a model of consistency in terms of fantasy hockey scoring; however, he does have a history of hot stretches. As we enter into the stretch run and playoff action, hot streaks are what you care about. That makes Campoli a name worth considering. Three years ago, Campoli came to the Senators at the deadline and followed that up with 13 points in 25 games, including 5 goals. So, perhaps he'll be motivated by the move. He should slide into occasional action on the Hawks power play right away. Don't be surprised to see him perform at a higher tick in his new home.
A few other guys moved at the deadline with potential to become fantasy factors down the stretch:
- Brad Boyes (BUF) - Boyes was starting to turn things around in St. Louis (24 points in his last 30 games), which may be the reason for Buffalo's interest. He has natural goal-scoring abilities, but it's been a while since he showed it.
- Dennis Wideman (WAS) - Like Campoli, he's inconsistent, but can go on incredible scoring stretches. Depending on how long Mike Green remains sidelined, Wideman could get significant minutes on the highly talented Washington power play over the next few weeks.
- Marco Sturm (WAS) - While it wasn't technically a trade, Sturm arrived in Washington via the waiver wire. He's an Alexander Semin injury away from short-term duty on one of the top lines with the Caps. Not a long-term fantasy solution by any means, but there is potential for a good week or two of fantasy numbers down the stretch.
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