Finishing in the season near the top of your league can be gratifying, but if you're reading this, you're probably in it to win.  And in order to win, you sometimes have to roll the dice on a gamble or two and hope you cash in.  You certainly don't want to load up too much on these guys, as the chances of them all panning out is small.  Here are a handful of guys that could either make or break your season, depending on which way the coin lands.

Offense

Tim Connolly      BUF 

Once again, Connolly was limited in play due to injury. It wasn't as bad this time around, as he "only" missed 9 games with a foot injury. He managed to put up 65 points in 73 games, both career highs. No one denies his talent, but you can't ignore the history here. Worth a late round look. 

Simon Gagne      TAM 

With Gagne, the hope never dies that you'll land one of the top goal scorers in the game late in the draft. Injuries seem to follow this guy at every turn. Hopefully he can escape those monsters with his move to Tampa. With either Lecavalier or Stamkos dishing him the puck, he'll score at his customary rate (which is quite often). The question, as always, is durability. Worth the risk as your 5th or 6th forward option. 

Marian Hossa      CHI 

After peaking at 100 points a few years back, Hossa has been regularly ranked near the top of fantasy forwards; however, a couple of injury shortened seasons with unexciting totals, his value has gone down a notch. While he contributes a lot to the Hawks with his defensive game, the offensive side has been steadily sliding, as witnessed in his dismal playoff numbers last spring. The potential is still there for getting back to the 80 point territory, but drafting Hossa too early is a risky move these days. 

Ilya Kovalchuk      NJD 

Until he gets under contract, consider him a gamble. There's always a chance he'll play in the KHL, and you don't want to waste your first or second pick on a non-player.

Rick Nash      COB 

To this point, Nash has been a one man show in Columbus. He's never had a top notch center to dish him the puck. Some of the young forwards are starting to emerge, so help may be on the way; however, in 2010, he'll be pulling the load once more. While he has the talent to score 40 goals a season, he has yet to play a full 82-game slate in his 7-year career. He missed 6 games last season, and is a bit injury prone. If all the stars line up, he may yet be a 50 goal scorer some day. The safe bet says he hits 35 this year. 

Marc Savard      BOS 

It's probably best to write off last season when evaluating Savard's draft value. He was plagued by various injuries and was healthy for very few of the 41 games he did play. Looking back, he has been an assist glutton for half a decade and should return to that role next season. On the other hand, concussions don't just go away, so there's a chance his games played won't climb into the 70's. Potential for a big time steal, or disappointing bust. 

Alexander Semin      WAS 

In terms of pure talent, there are few players in the world on the same level as Semin. The problem is the extras. Between injuries, off-ice decisions, and occasional spells where he can't hit the net for games on end, he can be a risky pick, particularly in the first or second round. Then again, when he's on, he's worth the pain. They may not be able to keep him in D.C. forever with the other salaries on the books, so enjoy the production while it lasts.

Lee Stempniak      PHO 

If anyone out there has this guy figured out, please let me know. For now, I'm placing him in gamble category, only because we don't have a "complete mystery" category yet. After four seasons of complete mediocrity, he was dealt to the Coyotes last spring. Out of nowhere, he emerged as the hottest player in the league down the stretch. Seems impossible that he can pick up where he left off in terms of pace, but you can't ignore what he accomplished in the last 2 months of the season.  Add to the story that he's still unsigned. No advice on this one from me. You're on your own. 

Defense

Kevin Bieksa      VAN 

Bieksa has twice topped the 10 goal mark in his time with Vancouver. He has a booming shot, but can be inconsistent. He's also injury prone, which makes him a risky pick. On the other hand, he could easily be a 50 point player if he stays healthy. 

Brian Campbell      CHI

Campbell has become the forgotten man playing in Chicago behind the likes of Keith and Seabrook. He finished the season on the IR with broken collarbone, but returned in the playoffs to post some unimpressive numbers. Don't let all that bad news turn you sour on Campbell's future. He's still a dynamic puck mover and the Hawks will fill the nets again in 2010-11. Provided he's healthy, there is a good chance he could return to the 50+ point range this season.  Or he might go down as one of the most overpaid players of all time. 

Joe Corvo      CAR 

Corvo can be a goal-scoring machine at times, but he has a history of being inconsistent. After coming to Washington last spring, his production dried up completely, getting just 8 points in 27 games. With that experiment deemed a failure, he will return to Carolina, where he'll be the undisputed powerplay QB. Tough to project where he'll be, but 10 goals and 35 points seems realistic. 

Ryan Whitney      EDM 

Roll the dice and pray for the best with Ryan Whitney. For years the Penguins waited for his emergence that came in 2006 with a huge 59 point season; however, things went south after that, and he's bounced to Anaheim and now Edmonton. He rebounded up to 39 points last season after a dismal 23 point performance the year before. Edmonton won't be leading the league in scoring this season, so he won't benefit from any free assists along the way, but the potential will always be there for a big fantasy season. 

James Wisniewski      NYI 

Wisniewski has shown flashes of great potential, but has yet to become much of a fantasy factor. He bounced from Chicago to Anaheim and now to New York, where he'll have ample opportunity this season to establish himself as an offensive presence. He has a tendency to go on hot and cold streaks and was suspended twice last season, so take your chances. As a late round gamble, it's worth the pick. 

Jay Bouwmeester      CGY 

Bouwmeester's stock took a huge dive last season. The move from Florida to Calgary was expected to help his stats, but his goal total tanked from 15 down to 3. Where will he go from here? The Flames are still scrambling to find an identity and don't have the firepower to score much, so don't count on total resurgence. However, his numbers have to improve on last year's disaster, so look for him as a potential sleeper. 10 goals and 40 points is a realistic target this season.

Goalies

Craig Anderson      COL 

Half way through last season, Anderson was the story. He led the shocking Avalanche to an incredible start. While he didn't completely collapse, the team, and his stats, came down to earth in the 2nd half. Because of his high fantasy point totals last season, GMs may overinflate his value. Despite the early success last season, Colorado is still a young, growing team. It wouldn't be surprising to see them miss the playoffs next year. Look to Anderson as a decent #2 option in 2010, no more. 

Cristobal Huet      CHI 

While the prevailing wisdom states that he'll be taking his big contract to the AHL or Europe to relieve some cap space, the bottom line at this point is that he's still on the Hawks roster, and objectively speaking, he's a good goalie. Teams could do a lot worse than his 2.5 GAA and 26-14 record from last season. If another contender with cap space gets desperate enough, Huet may just be a fantasy hockey factor once again before the season is out. At this point, however, he's a big time gamble to say the least.

Michael Leighton      PHI 

Drafting a Flyers goalie can always be considered a gamble. Leighton filled in admirably as the flavor of the month last spring after being cast off by the Canes. He looks to be the best option in Philly at this point, which gives him value out of the box. Keep an eye on the situation up to draft day. If another goalie comes to town, you can slide him off your list; otherwise, pencil him in for a late round gamble. 

Antti Niemi      (UFA)

It's wait and see at this point for Niemi until he signs a deal... 

Carey Price      MON 

Price has only been in the league a couple of years, and already you could write a book on the ride he's been on. The latest chapter saw him lose his job to Halak last spring, only to see Halak shipped off for next to nothing. While this defaults him back into the starting role, it adds even more pressure to the man, particularly if fans have to watch Halak succeed in St. Louis. And more pressure is not what a 23 year old goalie needs in Montreal. The upside is that he's a young, skilled goalie on a borderline playoff team. The Canadiens don't feature a particularly strong defensive team in front of him, so he'll probably see plenty of shots in 2010, if he lasts. No matter how you slice it, drafting Price is a serious gamble. 

An important key to winning any fantasy hockey league is nabbing one or two steals in the draft.  It's a wonderful feeling to call out a name late in the draft and then hear a guy or two mumbling about how they forgot about him on their list.  These players may be overlooked or undervalued by other managers for a variety of reasons.  Some of these guys had below average seasons last year, due to injury, etc. Others are just traditionally undervalued. These guys will slide a round or two beyond where they should. Don't miss out on them.

Offense

David Booth      FLA 

David Booth put up 31 goals in 2009-10 but was destroyed by concussion problems last season. He's a natural goal scorer and could be yours late in the draft. Reports say he's at 100% and will be ready to go for camp. Squeeze him onto your bench, as he could turn out to be a major find late in the draft.

Michael Cammalleri      MON 

Cammalleri was limited to 50 points in the regular season, due to a knee injury that kept him out a few weeks, and limited his effectiveness for a few more. However, he showed what he can do in the playoffs, ripping off 13 goals in just 19 games. He'll probably fly under the radar a bit, but don't forget about him. He has potential to win the Rocket Richard if he can get some help around him in Montreal. 

Pavel Datsyuk      DET

 After two straight seasons at 97 points, Datsyuk toppled down to 70 points last season. That should be enough to see him slip through the first two rounds undetected. He and the rest of the Wings should score more goals in 2010, so you can bank on a return to at least 80 points / 30 goals from Pavel. If he slides to you in the 3rd or 4th round, he could be the steal of the draft. 

Johan Franzen      DET 

Franzen is an absolute beast. When he's healthy. He missed 2/3 of last season, but was finally healed and ready to go for the playoffs. He registered at least one point in all 12 of the Wings postseason contests and scored 6 goals in those games. Given a full season of good health, you could expect close to 40 goals from Franzen. If you're willing to risk it, he'll reward you handsomely. 

Jiri Hudler      DET 

The news flew under the radar this summer, but Jiri Hudler is in fact returning to play with the Redwings this season. He was just hitting his prime when he bolted to the KHL last season, where he was a point-per-game player. With his return, the Wings are expecting close to 70 points from him this season, which is probably a reasonable expectation, perhaps on the high side. Either way, he will certainly be overlooked in most drafts, so you can nab him in a later round. 

Thomas Vanek      BUF 

If it's goals you hunger for, Vanek should be on your watch list. He has averaged more than 30 per season in his first 5 years. He was down a bit last season, missing time with 3 or 4 different random ailments, which held him back with each return. He came back to score a pair of goals in 3 playoff contests and should be healthy for the start of camp. He'll be downgraded by most GM's, which gives him potential for a mid-round steal. Set your expecations in the 35+ goal range once more. 

Defense

Brent Burns      MIN 

Once upon a time, not so long ago, there was talk of Brent Burns emerging as a Norris Trophy threat. The last two seasons have not been kind to Mr. Burns. In terms of fantasy hockey; however, that just means you can target him for a steal at this year's draft table. His point totals of 27 and 20 over the past two seasons will make most GMs forget he exists, but don't be fooled. Injuries account for most of the decline and he's the best Minnesota has to offer at that position. He should rebound this season to the 40+ point plateau, so grab him late and surprise your friends.

Niklas Kronwall      DET 

Kronwall was steadily becoming one of the top fantasy defensemen in the game, before his season was derailed last year by injury. He still managed to average close to .5 ppg and recorded 7 goals in just half a season's work. He may fly under the radar at the draft table due to his off season, so target him for a mid-round steal and you'll make out like a champ. 

Paul Martin      PIT

Martin's 11 point season in 2009-10 will cause him to go unnoticed by many managers.  His new home and return to health should merit your notice.  Look for 40 points in his new black and gold jersey.

Dion Phaneuf      TOR 

Phaneuf's ego took one on the chin over last season when he failed to reach the high expectations he set for himself early in his career. After his move to Toronto, he started to find his way a bit. He still finished the season with 12 goals, and while it falls short of the 20 he scored as a rookie, it's still a fine total for a defenseman. Phaneuf will be undervalued by most GMs, so you can get him at value. Expect him to climb back up towards 15 goals and 50 points again this season. 

Goalies

Brian Elliott      OTT 

At the start of last season, Elliot was presumed to be backing up Leclaire. After a series of injuries and spotty play by Leclaire, Elliot stepped in and stepped up. He finished with some pretty strong numbers and should have the upper hand to get the starts in 2010. However, don't count Leclaire out just yet. He's still a young goalie himself and couple very well get back into the mix. If Elliot gets the starts, he could be a steal, as the Senators should win some games next year. 

Steve Mason      COB

Steve Mason went from hero to goat boy in a matter of weeks. After a fantastic rookie campaign, he crapped the bed out of the gate last fall. He's still very young and the temptation may be to write him off. Don't be a fool. Mason has a bright future ahead of him, despite his sophomore setback. If you can get him as your 3rd goalie, consider it a steal. 

Tomas Vokoun      FLA 

Vokoun doesn't get the credit that he deserved, mostly because of where he plays. He put up another great year with a .925 save percentage and 7 shutouts; however, a mediocre GAA of 2.55 holds him back. If your league values saves highly, he's a solid #1 goalie. He approached 2000 saves last season once again, and should see a good deal of action in 2010-11. Add to that the possibility that he could be moved in the spring to a contender, and you could find yourself in a good spot come playoff time. 

In preparing for your upcoming fantasy hockey drafts, one of the keys to watch for are players who are poised for a breakout season.  These are guys who have yet to reach the upper levels  of fantasy hockey players, but could get into that territory by season's end.    If you draft purely off of last season's stats, you're always going to miss out on some of the best performers.    Here are some names to target as you prepare for your 2010-11 fantasy hockey draft.

OFFENSE

Claude Giroux (PHI)

 Giroux played his first full NHL season last year and gradually took on a bigger role with the club. Come playoff time, he was producing like a pro, totaling 21 points in 23 games. Giroux is clearly ready for a breakout season in the 70 point territory.

Phil Kessel (TOR) 

Kessel started last season on the shelf, and thus only reached 55 points in his first season in Blue. Make no mistake, he's a true sniper, and Toronto will count on him to deliver the goals. That's where his fantasy value shines. If your league heavily values goals, target him in the 3rd or 4th round. He should have a breakout season in the 40 goal territory. 

Ville Leino (PHI) 

After recording just 11 points in the regular season, Ville "John Druce" Leino racked up an astounding 21 points in 19 playoff games. For Leino, it all comes down to playing time. He simply couldn't crack the top lines in Detroit and again in his early days in Philly. Now that he's proven what he can do, expect him to start the season on a scoring line and he'll easily set some career highs. 

James Neal  (DAL) 

Neal has the makings of a big time goal scorer. He could start to realize that potential in his 3rd NHL season. Look for him to pot 30 or more this season and continue to contribute to your team in penalty minutes as well. Could finish in the top 30 this season in terms of total fantasy points. 

David Perron (STL)

Perron signed on for 2 more years with the Blues at a relatively modest salary. That could look like a steal in his second year, as he has the potential for a big breakout campaign. He has yet to top 20 goals and 50 points, but should have no problem besting both of those numbers in 2010-11. Flag him as a late-round sleeper, as he probably won't merit much attention at the draft table. 

John Tavares (NYI) 

Tavares had a terribly erratic rookie season where he went on some crazy runs with a huge, hairy dry spell in the middle. We'll cut him some slack on his first go round, but expectations should be high for Tavares in his 2nd season. He's a natural goal scorer who could push for 40 this time around. 

DEFENSE

Erik Johnson (STL)

Johnson was the first overall pick in 2006, but isn't in the forefront of fantasy defensemen due to his missed year in 2008. He came back to post a solid 10 goals and 39 points last season. He will surely blow those numbers away this season. Look for a big breakout year from Johnson in the 50+ point range. 

Jack Johnson (LOS)

Johnson is very slowly starting to realize his potential after being drafted 3rd overall in 2005. He capped off the playoffs with 7 assists in 6 games. The Kings should score plenty this season and Johnson should play a part in that story. He reached 8 goals and 36 points in 2009, but his +/- is still embarassing. If he wants to log the big minutes, he'll have to do better in his own end. Even so, look for a potential breakout season from Johnson this year. 

Kris Letang (PIT)

Kris Letang was all set to breakout last season after a terrific playoff run in 2009. It didn't quite play out that way, and he sputtered down to 3 goals, despite getting significant opportunity in the early months. He'll still quite young and the Pens will be counting on his offensive production, so the chances will come again. If he can evolve into an efficient power play QB, this could be the breakout season for Letang. 

P.K. Subban (MON)

If you missed last year's playoff run, you might not have Subban on your radar yet. If you caught that display, you won't be shocked to see the rookie ranked so high on our charts. He has a few things to learn in his own end, which may limit his playing time, but look for him to ultimately lead the potent Montreal power play and put up huge numbers for the Canadiens this season. 

GOALIES

Corey Crawford (CHI)

While Niemi was the hero of the day, life at the top can be short lived for young goaltenders. If Huet gets buried as expected, Crawford should make it to the big leagues to start as Turco's backup. Crawford has future star potential, and he should get a share of the starts for the Hawks this season. Grab him in the last couple rounds and have the last laugh come spring. 

Dan Ellis (TAM)

Ellis had a short run of fame with the Predators before being replaced by Rinne as the go-to guy.  He now comes to an improving Tampa Bay roster in need of a solid #1 goalie.  The opportunity is there for him to have a breakout campaign.  Mike Smith hasn't shown enough consistency to demand the majority of the starts.  Expect a fair battle and don't be surprised if Ellis finishes the season with 30+ wins. 

Josh Harding (MIN)

Thus far, Harding has served adequately as a backup to Backstrom, and has showed some potential as a future #1 guy. Backstrom has suffered injuries in the past, so don't be surprised to see Harding's starts continue to rise. The downside is that Minnesota is no longer breeding grounds for great goalie stats with their new attitude towards offense. Even so, if you're looking for a late round pick with breakout potential, he's a fair option. 

Pascal Leclaire (OTT)

Most fans have either written off Leclaire or forgotten he exists. He's certainly been on a dismal slide the past two seasons, but most of that was due to injury. He's still young and full of potential on a playoff caliber team. Elliot has assumed the starter role heading into this season, but it's not a stretch to imagine Leclaire reclaiming the job some time in 2010-11. Worth a late round look for a potential comeback year. 

Cory Schneider (VAN)

All that's standing in the way of Schneider being a significant fantasy option is Luongo's health. He'll start the season as the backup and the NHL will get their first look at a potential future star. Add him to your bench and it will pay off at some point in the season.

For a solid fantasy hockey draft strategy, there is much to consider for goalies and defensemen.  When it comes to forwards, it's a much simpler proposition.   First off, get to know your point system.  This can make a huge difference in ranking your players.  For example, if your league counts goals and assists equally (join a new league), then guys like Joe Thornton and Henrik Sedin are valuable commodities.  In leagues that favor goals over assists, you can knock these playmakers down the list a bit.  Pay attention to penalty minutes, too.  If you just look at points, you might miss the value that Steve Downie brought to fantasy teams last year, blending goals, assists, and a buttload of PIMs. 

As with other goalies and defensemen, it's wise to group your players in tiers.  It helps when you're trying to decide which position to pick.  If there's a tier 1 forward available, but the best goalie out there is down in tier 4, you'll get more value taking the forward.  This is an art that must be mastered through mock drafts.

Leagues can also vary dramatically in their approach to classifying forwards.  Some lump all forwards together, others separate centers from wingers, while others go as far as left wing / right wing distinction.  If this is your league, you've got even more work to do.   I'll be following up soon with an article that focuses more on league-specific draft strategies for the major sites out there (CBS, Yahoo, etc.). 

For now, let's dive in to the top 15 fantasy forwards for 2010.  Note: For the purposes of this article, I'm grouping all forwards together and assuming a fantasy scoring system which heavily favors goals (so no hate mail from Henrik lovers out there, please).

TIER 1

1. Sidney Crosby

By claiming his first Rocket Richard Trophy last season, Crosby completed the one element to his fantasy stats that were somewhat lacking (at least compared to the other elite players). There's not a weakness in his game, and he's entering his prime years. For my money, he's the safest bet as your #1 forward.

2. Alex Ovechkin

If you're wandering Crosby vs Ovechkin, the simple answer is, who would you rather cheer for? Either way, you'll get your points. One factor to keep in mind is Ovechkin's antics. How many games will he miss due to suspension and/or injuries from his reckless style of play. Either way, you'll keep plenty of points.

3. Steven Stamkos

Stamkos proved in his sophomore season that he's ready to be mentioned with the big boys, after splitting the Richard Trophy with Crosby and topping out at 95 points. He will challenge for the goal scoring lead and total points this season.

4. Evgeni Malkin

Injuries kept Malkin out of the scoring race last season, but he'll be right back in the mix this season. Don't discount him for this year, as some may be tempted to do. 100 points are in the cards for Geno.

TIER 2

5. Niklas Backstrom

Is there a limit to how good this kid can get? In his first three seasons, he's gone from 69 to 88 to 101 points, and hasn't missed a game yet in his career. He's even cracked the 30 goal plateau, so we're looking at a complete package in terms of fantasy stats. You could make a case for him in the top 3.

6. Ilya Kovalchuk

If you need goals, Kovalchuk is absolute money. He's topped 40 goals for the past 6 seasons and shows no signs of stopping now. Assuming his contract situation gets resolved, he should be high on your list again this season. Look for another run at 50 goals this season.

7. Dany Heatley

Heatley is about as consistent as they come in terms of top scorers in the league. 40 goals and 40 assists are a given for the winger. If he and Thornton can establish some better chemistry this season, he could potentially get himself back into the 50 goal club.

8. Alexander Semin

In terms of per talent, there are few players in the world on the same level as Semin. The problem is the extras. Between injuries, off-ice decisions, and occasional spells where he can't hit the net for games on end, he can be a risky pick, particularly in the first or second round. Then again, when he's on, he's worth the pain. They may not be able to keep him in D.C. forever with the other salaries on the books, so enjoy the production while it lasts.

9. Zach Parise

Parise reached elite status in 2008-09 when he capped out at 45 goals and 94 points. He slipped a bit last season, down to 82 points. The good news is that the dip in numbers may cause other GMs to undervalue him. In 5 seasons, he's sat out a total of 3 games. Despite Kovalchuk's presence, he's the go-to guy in New Jersey and should challenge for the scoring title this season.

TIER 3

10. Patrick Kane

Love him or hate him, there's no denying that Kane has become a solid fantasy forward who may soon join the elite. He recorded 88 points in his third NHL season and kept up the pace throughout the playoffs. The Hawks still have plenty of offensive talent in town and Kane should lead the team in all categories. Look for him to land in the 90 point territory in 2010-11.

11. Daniel Sedin

Despite losing out to twin brother for the scoring title last season, Daniel is my choice for best fantasy Sedin. Had it not been for his early season injury, which kept him out of 19 games, he would crushed Henrik's goal totals and may have won the Art Ross himself. Look for him to make a run at 100 points this time around.

12. Marian Gaborik

It's going to take more than one season of 76 games played before I'm willing to risk a first round pick on Gaborik's health. If you took a chance on him last year, it obviously paid off, as he returned to 42 goals. If he's still on the board in the 3rd round, go for it. Otherwise, place your bets on a safer number.

13. Henrik Sedin

Full credit goes to Henrik for winning the scoring title, particularly while going a stretch without brother Daniel. The bottom line, however, is that it will be a monumental task to repeat such a performance. There are just too many other stars out there at his level. In terms of total fantasy value, he loses some big points due to his goal/assist ratio. If you're picking a forward in the first round, he better be topping 30 goals, which Henrik has never done. He may get back to 100 points, but when 80 of those are assists, you're not getting your money's worth. Someone is bound to pick him higher than he deserves. Don't be that guy.

14. Joe Thornton

With Joe, what you see is what you get. 20+ goals and a buttload of assists. If he could ever make up his mind to shoot the puck, he'd be a top 5 player every season. As it stands, he's still a good center to have on your roster. Consider this: in the past 7 seasons, he was beneath a point-a-game just once. He's also annually among the leaders in +/-. Can't really go wrong here.

15. Anze Kopitar

Kopitar stormed the castle last October, running out to a early lead in the scoring race. However, after injuries to his linemates, he came back down to earth. He still finished with respectable career-highs of 34 goals and 81 points. There's no denying his talent, and as a team, the Kings are clearly on the rise. Expect him to repeat in the 80 point range next season.

To see the rest of my top 120 forward rankings, visit:  http://www.landsharkhockey.com/LS/tools/DraftRankings.aspx.  You can also customize your own list there.

When it comes to formulating your draft strategy, take some time to carefully consider your approach to defense.  More than any other position, defensive scoring can vary dramatically from league to league.  Some leagues value scoring by a defenseman higher than forwards, while others lump them together.  This can dramatically change your approach in terms of when to draft that first defenseman on your list.  For example, in standard CBS league scoring, a goal by a defenseman is worth 5 points, compared to 3 for a forward.  That puts a premium on a D-man who can put up 10 or more goals in a season.

When it comes to ranking defensemen, it's important to approach it in tiers.  There tends to be a dramatic drop off in production after the first 10 or 15 players.  After that, you can pretty much find 30-40 guys who will fall into the 30 to 45 point territory.  So, as opposed to goaltending, there's relatively little difference between your 20th ranked defenseman and your 40th ranked guy.  Just look at last years stats for example.  13 players topped the 45 point mark.  After that, there were 36 players who landed between 30 and 45 points.  The real difference comes at the top of the list, where Mike Green is in a class by himself.  While Duncan Keith put up a fight, 17 points separated Green from the 3rd place finisher, Drew Doughty. 

Another factor to consider is how predictable this position tends to be versus offense and goaltending.  While goalie leaders tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year, the top scorers on defense tend to be much more predictable.  So, if you spend an early pick on a top-rated defensemen, you've got a much better chance of having the pick pan out.  Just ask anyone who drafted Tim Thomas or Nick Backstrom (G) in round 1 last year.

As a general rule, I try to acquire 2 of the top 10 defenseman out there, even if I have to sacrifice in other areas.  It's just the safest bet out there.  After that, fill up on forwards and goalies and fill out your defense with whatever you can nab around round 8 and beyond.  And if you have a shot at Mike Green - take it.  Even as high as first overall.  In terms of value, you can't beat his numbers at that position.  Period.   Well, you know my number one is, so let's take a look at the rest of the top picks as well:

TIER 1

1. Mike Green

True, his goal totals were way down last season, but he still pounded home 19 and led all blueliners in points with 76. He should repeat or improve on those totals in 2010-11. If there's a such a things as a sure thing in fantasy hockey, his name be Mike Green.

2. Drew Doughty

If anyone has a shot at rivaling Green in points from the back, it's going to Doughty. The smooth skating King is entering just his third season, and he's already among the elite at his position. Don't hesitate to take him in the first round.

3. Shea Weber

Shea Weber has arrived as a top-rate fantasy defenseman. Putting aside the 2007 season when he was hurt, Weber has delivered goal totals of 17, 23, and 16. His shot from the point is the hardest we've seen since Al Iafrate and Al MacInnis retired. 20 goals should be a given this season in Nashville.

4. Duncan Keith

Keith has finally got the respect due him after finishing 2nd in defensive scoring, winning the Cup, and claiming his first Norris Trophy. No reason to expect any major setbacks here, though it may be tough to reach 69 points again. He looked a little gun shy in the finals after loosing half his teeth, but he has the summer to get over that fear. Bank on 60 points or more and be content with him as your top defenseman.

5. Sergei Gonchar

When healthy, there have been few fantasy options better than Mr. Gonchar over the past decade. He's a master at running the power play and piles up the assists. His move from Pittsburgh to Ottawa may detract from his totals a bit, but don't let that scare you away. Remember, he put up top stats on a poor Capitals team before coming to the Pens. The only thing holding Gonchar back from being a top 3 defensive pick is health concerns. I'd still take a chance on him in Round 2.

TEIR 2

6. Dan Boyle

Boyle has topped 50 points for 5 of the past 7 seasons, and one of those off years was cut short by freak injury. The Sharks haven't lost a bit of their firepower up front, so you can expect another solid offensive year from the veteran defenseman. He should see somewhere in the neighborhood of his customary 15 goals and 50+ point season, while chewing up close to 30 minutes a night.

7. Zdeno Chara

Chara's goal totals took a dive last season, along with everyone else in Boston. He still finished the season with 44 points and a buttload of penalty minutes, which is par for the giant over the past decade. The Bruins will score more this season, and Chara should rebound back to the 15 goal territory.

8. Tyler Myers

Myers proved to a beast on defense in his rookie year, racking up 11 goals and 48 points in route to winning the Calder Trophy. He did so playing a relatively modest number of minutes for a #1 defenseman. The Sabres won't hesitate to give him more ice time after losing Lydman and Tallinder this summer. Don't be shocked to see 60 points by his name by the end of the year.

9. Mark Streit

Streit has been a fantasy stud since arriving on the Island three seasons ago. However, his numbers have dipped a bit over the last two seasons. He's still an elite performer and will continue to play roughly half of each game, as the Islanders have few other options. New York's youngsters are entering their prime and the goal count will rise this season, so look for Streit to approach 50 assists. Quality pick as your #1 D.

10. Chris Pronger

At age 36, you'd think he should be starting to slow down; however, if you watched the playoffs last spring, there are no signs of that yet. Pronger's stats are remarkably consistent from year to year, and he contributes in all categories. So, depending on your format and scoring, you may place him higher. Look for another 10 goal / 50 point year from the bad boy in Philly.