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2012 Early Summer Moves - Fantasy Impact

by chewy 9. July 2012 09:51

Unless you're a true, die-hard fantasy hockey addict, early July isn't the time to start agonizing over your draft list.  However, for those of us who do fit that profile, the week after "Free Agent Frenzy" is the perfect time to start the agonizing.  Aside from a few more miscellaneous signings, and one or two potential pending trades, there really isn't a whole lot of new information that will significantly alter your rankings between now and September.   Most of the significant moves are in the books.  So, before agonizing over Crosby vs Malkin vs Giroux, let's regroup and consider the fantasy impact from the signings and trades so far this summer:

 

The Big Ones

  • Parise / Suter bombshell in Minnesota

Despite all the hype, mostly due to a shallow pool of UFA's, the impact of these deals will felt more in terms of season ticket sales and wins for the Minnesota organization than it will on the fantasy scene.  While both of these players have significant fantasy potential, neither can be considered a fantasy superstar. 

 

For the most part, Parise has slightly underperformed against fantasy expectations thus far in his career.  Going from the Devils to Mike Yeo's defense-first system won't significantly help him on that front.  Neither will his lack of top notch partners with the Wild.  While he will see as much playing time as he can handle, his prospects for fantasy gold have not changed much, making him a 2nd or 3rd tier winger once again.

 

The story for Suter isn't much different.  He was already playing close to 30 minutes a game for Nashville, so he can't play more.  His value to an organization isn't primarily measured in goals and assists.   Suter has lingered around 5 goals and 40 points for the past 5 years, and there is no reason to believe that will change by moving north a few hundred miles.

 

  • Staal to Carolina

Staal proved during Crosby's absence over the past couple of seasons that he does have an offensive side to his game, when he's given the authorization to use it.  While I don't see him besting big brother on the scoresheet on most nights, I do anticipate a career year offensively for Jordan in his new colors.  70 points is a realistic target, which would top his previous best by 20.

 

Coming the other way, Brandon Sutter finds himself in the same shadow that Staal just fled.  The young center now has 4 NHL seasons on his resume and proved at times last year, that he is also capable of respectable offensive production.  Given the certainty that Malkin and Crosby cannot possibly remain healthy all season long, he will get a shot or two on the 2nd line at some point, so topping his career high of 40 points is well within range.

 

 

 

The Underrated, but More Important than you think deals

  • Derek Roy / Jaromir Jagr to DAL

Roy has been down and out over the past couple of seasons in Buffalo; however, he had a few stretches of brilliance last season.  He's coming into a good spot in Dallas where he will assume the 2nd line center role previously occupied by the unstable Ribiero.  I would expect a big boost in Roy's numbers, perhaps playing with fellow newcomer, Jaromir Jagr.

 

  • Tuukka Rask / Tim Thomas ordeal in Boston

Who knows why exactly things turned so bizarre in the Boston net over the past several months, but coming out the other end, you have a very promising young goaltender who just signed an extension, playing net for a very promising team in Boston.  He was tagged by some to be a pre-season Vezina candidate two years ago, before Thomas had his second revival and did it himself.  At age 25 and with the job completely his from the get go, this could be a banner year for Rask in Boston.

 

  • PA Parenteau to Colorado

The big question here is whether his impact in Colorado will be as great as the hole he'll leave on Long Island.  Just when New York fans get some semblance of a consistent top-notch scoring line, the clowns upstairs let a key piece walk.  Parenteau clicked with Tavares over the past two seasons and it remains to be seen who will step up and fill that spot.  Will Tavares be able to top the 80 point mark again with Okposo or Brad Boyes hanging out on the right side?

 

  • Jason Garrison goes long distance, FLA to VAN

Garrison picked the perfect time to have a breakout, offensive campaign.  Just in time to cash in with a big-money contract on a more exciting hockey club with Vancouver.  The Canucks are still looking to replace the offense they've lost in recent seasons from their defense.  Should Garrison continue his upward trajectory, he could be a significant fantasy factor in 2012-13

 

  • Cory Schneider re-signs with the Canucks

Keeping with Vancouver, the low-profile 3-year extension given to "backup" Cory Schneider is significant, particularly given the uncertain status of Luongo with the franchise.  Should Luongo be moved this summer, as some expect, Schneider instantly becomes a top 10 goaltending option.  Possibly even top 5.

 

 

The Forgettable

  • Steve Sullivan - PHO

Sullivan had a nice, short run with the offensively gifted Pens last season.  He won't be a fantasy factor in Phoenix this year.

 

  • Matt Carle - TB

No reason to think at age 27 that Carle's production will be any different in Tampa.  Expect another 35 to 40 point season.

 

  • Olli Jokinen - WPG

The Jets were a surprisingly entertaining offensive bunch last season.  So what will Jokinen add to this mix as the potential new #1 center?  If his history is any indication, this may backfire. 

 

 


Potluck Supper

  • Jiri Hudler - CGY

Saying goodbye to one puzzle on offense, the Flames turned around and brought a new one in.  He never had the opportunity to be a go-to guy in Detroit.  He may flourish or may disappear in a new home.

 

  • Sheldon Souray - ANA

How many kicks at the can will this guy get?  At age 35, expectations should be set pretty low from a fantasy perspective; however, that cannon can still fire from the blue line.

 

 

The Yet-To-Come

  • Rick Nash - Who will overpay in a trade?  Chances are it will be another team in desperate need of offense, which means Nash still will have little assistance.

 

  • Alex Semin - Will anyone take a serious chance on this guy?  Expect a short-term deal with a contender, but no telling how he will perform.  Probably worth a risk at your draft depending on where he lands.

 

  • Shane Doan - At age 35, he's a 20-goal man at best, regardless of where he lands.

 

  • A winger for Crosby - will Shero find that elusive piece to the Pittsburgh puzzle this summer?

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