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Rookie Fantasy Report

by chewy 10. March 2010 10:04
 

It's been a relatively slow season in terms of significant rookie impact in the fantasy hockey realm this year.  The past few seasons have been extraordinary in terms of rookie showings.   Consider: Steve Mason and Bobby Ryan in 09.  Patrick Kane and Nicklas Backstrom in 08.  Malkin and Stastny in 07.  And, of course, Ovechkin and Crosby in 06.  All of these players were major players in their debut seasons.  While 09-10 hasn't produced a similar impact player over the long haul, there have been stretches of greatness from rookies here and there.  Often times, the cream of the crop will rise during the last 6 weeks of the season.  So let's take a look at which rookies figure to have the biggest fantasy impact over the final month of the season:

 

1. Matt Duchesne (F - COL)

Duchesne is looking more and more like a lock for the Calder Trophy, as he's the one player who has performed consistently well from day one of the season.  While his numbers aren't staggering, he's already eclipsed 20 goals and has a shot at 30.  Since the break, he has 5 points in 5 games, and he's piling up the shots.  You can count on him being a steady producer to finish out the season.

 

2. Tyler Myers (D - BUF)

Myers may be the one guy in this group who has most exceeded expectations.  Both from an all around play and from a fantasy perspective, the giant blueliner has been a pleasant surprise.  He's on pace for 10 goals and 40 points this year, which is a decent showing for a defenseman of any age.  His production has slowed a bit recently; however, he's still logging around 25 minutes a game.  Look for him to continue his pace of .5 pts per game.

 

3. Jimmy Howard (G - DET)

After years of anticipation and promise, the baton has officially been passed on to Howard to protect the Redwing net.  A good percentage of NHL fans have never seen a Detroit team miss the playoffs, but Howard has been one of the few bright spots on the Redwings roster.  He's on pace for 30 wins, despite playing on an average team, and despite starting the season as the backup to Osgood.  He is facing an inordinate number of shots each night, but that has only served to bolster his save percentage.  The Wings are bound to tighten things up over the final month, now that their roster is healthy, so don't be surprised to see Howard put a few shutouts on the board.

 

4. T.J. Galiardi (F - COL)

Check your free agent list in your league.  There's a spankin' good chance that Galiardi is still sitting there in the corner, waiting for someone to ask him to dance.  If you're looking for a partner to fill out your offense, consider the Avalanche rookie.  While a host of other rookies shot out of the gate in Denver, he started slow, then spent a few weeks on the IR with ankle problems. Since the start of December, his role in Colorado and his production have started to soar.  Since the Olympic break, he's tallied 6 points in 5 games.  In fact, he's played at near a point a game pace over the past 20 games, as he's bounced around between the top two lines. 

 

5. John Tavares (F - NYI)

It's been a confusing season for the man preordained to win the Calder this year.  He came out of the gate on fire, then completely disappeared for a couple of months, while other Islander rookies took the stage.  Since the break, Tavares has started to show signs of life once again.  He logged 20 minutes last night (the first time since December), and knocked in a goal.  His shot totals have picked up since the break as well, including a 7 shot performance against Ottawa.  Most fantasy owners have benched or dumped him at this point, so you may want to roll the dice on him making a late season push.  At a minimum, you can expect another 6 or 7 seven goals over the next month.

 

6. Tuukka Rask (G - BOS)

The only thing holding Rask back from being a major fantasy hockey goalie is the contract of Tim Thomas.  The Bruins committed to Thomas in a big way last summer, despite the fact that Rask has shown he's ready to take the #1 job.  Over his past 10 games, he's recorded a 2.2 GAA and .920 save percentage.  He's currently dealing with a knee injury, but once he returns, he should be a viable #2 option in net.  If you're in a keeper league, now's the time to make a deal of Rask and set yourself up for years of fantasy gold.

 

7. Niclas Bergfors (F - ATL)

Bergfors was a promising prospect in New Jersey.  He's now a productive player in Atlanta.  Since arriving with the Thrashers, he has tallied 8 points in 10 games, including 6 goals.  He's in a much more prominent role in his new environment, and he seems to be answering the call. He's still available in most leagues, so if you need the help, he could provide a late season push for your fantasy roster.

 

8. Michael Del Zotto (D - NYR)

Much like his former Oshawa/London teammate John Tavares (see above), Del Zotto has had an up and down rookie campaign.  He stormed out of the gate, then disappeared from the New York City lights.  He just returned from the IR and looks like he may be back in business.  He's recording big minutes, including top power play honors, and has recorded 2 points in his first 3 games back. 

Trade Deadline 2010 - Fantasy Impact

by chewy 4. March 2010 10:27
 

Yes, for fans who were expecting a grand fireworks finale coming off the Olympic high, Trade Deadline Day was a bit of a let down.  To the casual fan, not a single trade made yesterday would register more than an "Oh.  Is he any good?"  However, to the fantasy hockey nut (which I assume you are, since you're reading this), there was plenty of fallout from what did, and what did not go down yesterday.  

 

Ryan Whitney (D - EDM) for Lubomir Visnovsky (D - ANA)

It was a late breaker, but on a slow day, this qualified as big news.  The Ducks made a bold move by taking on a long term, high-value contract on D, but with Pronger gone and Niedermeyer waving goodbye soon enough, it was a wise move.  If you were lucky enough to have Vishnovsky on your roster, you've got to love this deal.  He goes from Siberia to California Sunshine, both in terms of climate, and in terms of fantasy value.  The big Czech defenseman will take his 10 goals to the powerful Ducks power play.  He had been on a bit of a dry spell, but blame that on environment.  He should finish strong in Anaheim.

 

On the other hand, Whitney was just getting by as a depth defensemen in the fantasy world.  If you were on the fence about dropping him, this should seal the deal.  Don't expect grand things from anyone in Edmonton over the next 6 weeks, particularly a guy struggling to find his way like Whitney.

 

Joe Corvo (D) to Washington

It was disappointing to see Carolina throwing in the towel, since the team has been on such a strong run lately.  Though most of the players moved were 3rd and 4th liners, Corvo was a heavy blow.  From Corvo's perspective, this should be a boost down the stretch.  Nobody scores like the Caps, and Corvo is a power play weapon.  He should complement Green nicely breaking out of the zone, and should rack up the assists.  The loser in this deal will most likely be Tom Poti, as he will probably lose a lot of his time on the power play.

 

Denis Grebeshkov (D) to Nashville

Grebeshkov has been fighting through injuries all season, but after a strong Olympic performance, seems to be ready to go for the stretch.  Getting out of Edmonton would normally be a good thing; however, he has landed on a team already crowded on the blueline and weak up front.  Unless the Preds plan to be the first team in history to run with 3 defensemen on the power play, this move ultimately won't benefit Grebeshkov all that much.  If you had him, keep him.  Otherwise, he's still a bubble option on the waivers if you're looking for a replacement on D.

 

No Deal for the Flyers

After Ray Emery went down for the season, most observers expected the Flyers to grab a #1 goalie.  Their lack of movement may hurt the team come playoff team, but it means you need to consider picking up Michael Leighton and/or Brian Boucher.  Leighton seems to be getting the starts right now, but Boucher has the experience and may be the option going into the playoffs.  The Flyers are finding their game, and  should put up the wins down the stretch.  Both goalies are available in most leagues.

 

Alex Ponikarovsky (F) to Pittsburgh

This deal may pay off big for the Penguins in the playoffs, as they add another secondary scoring winger.  In the short term, don't be surprised to see a quick boost in Ponikarovsky's production, as he'll most likely see some time next to Malkin out of the gate.  He might still be available on the wire in your league, but he'll be probably be gone by tomorrow.

Western Conference Playoff Race

by chewy 2. March 2010 09:36

 

We tackled the East on Saturday, so let's take a look at how things will shake down in the mighty West over the next six weeks.

 

Who's In:

San Jose and Chicago - Only two teams have enough breathing room to look over their shoulder at this point.

 

Who's Out:

Edmonton and Columbus - Let the firesale begin for the Oilers and Jackets as they look ahead to draft day and next season.

 

Who's Left:

While the math leaves us with 11 teams and 6 playoff spots, don't expect the final participants to look too much different than they do today.  The cream has started to rise in the West.  There will be plenty of jockeying for position, but don't look for an overhaul in the players come April.  We'll take it by Division:

 

Pacific Division

The power in the West has slowly returned to the Pacific Division, at least in terms of numbers.  There will be at least three, probably four, and there's a remote shot at all five teams making the cut this season.

 

Los Angeles (IN) - A few wins out of the break should put the Kings into the lock status.  They entered the break red hot, going 8-1-1.  Would take a seismic event to keep them from getting back to the post-season for the first time since the lockout.

 

Phoenix (IN) - If any team deserves a break this season, it's the Coyotes.  They've worked harder to get to where they are than any team, and it appears it's going to pay off.  They also went into the Olympic Break on a high note.  While they'll most likely slide a bit from fourth place, where they currently sit, they won't fall far.  Welcome back to the post-season, Shane Doan.

 

Anaheim (IN) - Last season, the Ducks rallied down the stretch to qualify and then did plenty of damage in the playoffs.  Don't be shocked if the story repeats itself.  We'll find out tomorrow if the Ducks believe it can happen again.  I believe they'll hold on to their assets and make another run at it.

 

Dallas (OUT) - With all the divisional games down the stretch, somebody has to lose some games in this group.  Look for it to be the Stars.  They're currently just one point of the final spot, but there's not a great deal of evidence to indicate they'll rise above that.  This team is still struggling to find an identity, other than the most difficult franchise to predict from season to season.

 

Central Division

It was less than a year ago that this division was considered the up and coming power in the NHL.  Things haven't gone to plan.  It's quite realistic to think that only one team could qualify this year, and all five nearly made it in 09.

 

Nashville (OUT) - As of today, they're in.  Check back tomorrow and it may be another story.  The Predators are playing mediocre hockey going into the break.  While they'll have the fortune of feasting on their divisional rivals down the stretch, it will come down to the final few games to decide their fate, as it has for the last several seasons.  They just missed last season and they'll just miss again.

 

Detroit (OUT) - That's right.  Detroit's reign of terror may finally be coming to an end.  I hesitate to write those words, as such silly predictions have a tendency to prove false when the Wings are involved.  After all, the boys from MoTown are finally healthy, Lidstrom has regained his form after a slow start, and Howard is playing well in the net.  But nothing lasts forever, including their streak of 2 decades in the post-season.

 

St. Louis (OUT) - Once again the Blues find themselves within a good win streak of qualifying for the playoffs.  Last season, they pulled off the unlikely and made it happen.  While they'll probably make a good go at it, they'll ultimately fall short this time around.  Look for them to miss the dance by a tie breaker.

 

Northwest Division

The past few years have been a wild ride in the Northwest, with all 5 teams typically being within a game or two of each other until the bitter end.  The group seperated early this season, with the Oilers dropping out months ago, and the Avalanche storming out of the gate.  Look for three teams to make the cut.

 

Colorado (IN) - The Avalanche have been the team to beat in this division from the start of the season, and no reason to think they're going to slide now.  Colorado pretty much owned the divisional crown for nearly a decade, and it appears they're ready to reclaim their title, much earlier than anyone expected.

 

Calgary (IN) - The Flames were picked by many at the start of the season to challenge for the Cup.  After a freefall in January, they were being picked to miss the cut altogether.  Look for neither one to happen at this point.  The team has had time to absorb the big trade and should settle down into above .500 hockey down the stretch.  It won't be enough to challenge for the division title, but should be sufficient to land in the playoffs.

 

Vancouver (IN) - I originally picked the Canucks to miss the playoffs this year, given the insane schedule they were up against, and the perceived lack of scoring.  The team has managed it better than expected, and is currently tied for first in the division.  However, they're only half way through their huge road trip and the next couple weeks will likely determine their fate.  Look for them to make the playoffs, but just barely.

 

Minnesota (OUT) - Perhaps the least surprising of the disappointments in this West, the Wild have little chance of turning things around in time this year.  The team was supposed to have a whole new look and exciting style of play.  The problem is that good marketing doesn't mean much when you haven't built a roster to play that way.  Even if Havlat catches fire and Bouchard miraculously heals, it's going it's going to be a good while before this team is a threat in the West.

 

 

So here is my prediction for the Final Standings in the West:

1. Chicago

2. San Jose

3. Colorado

4. LA

5. Calgary

6. Phoenix

7. Anaheim

8. Vancouver

9. St. Louis

10. Nashville

11. Detroit

12. Minnesota

13. Dallas

14. Columbus

15. Edmonton

Eastern Conference Playoff Race

by chewy 27. February 2010 10:41
 

Back to work.

It has been a most enjoyable two weeks of Olympic hockey.  But now, it's time to get back to the NHL.  With roughly 20 games to go in the season, the first few strokes have been painted on the playoff picture.  So let's take a look ahead and who's going to be dancing in April on the East Coast:

 

Who's In:

Washington, New Jersey, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo can start selling tickets now.  No point dwelling on the obvious.  The only team at risk here is Buffalo, who entered the break on a stink boat, but they can't help but ride Miller's wave next week, so count them in.

 

Who's Out:

Toronto - The Bruins are licking their chops at the prospect of the #1 pick coming from the Leafs this spring.

NY Islanders and Florida - While both of the these teams are only 6 points out of the final spot, both squads are in a freefall.  The Islanders didn't really expect to contend this season, and the Panthers have publicly declared that they've tipped their King on the board.

 

Who's Left:

With five spots taken and three teams in the stands, that leaves 7 squads in the circle to squeeze their butts into 4 chairs when the music stops.  6 of those teams are within 5 points of each other, and they're all playing mediocre hockey right now.  So it may be a matter of who defaults into the final slots.  Let's start with the obvious exception…

 

Carolina (IN) - Everyone wrote this team off in November, and again in December when the expected recovery failed to come.  I refuse to give up on this team (sure, I'm biased, I'm a fan).  The Canes went into the Olympic break as one of the hottest teams in the East, winning 8 of their last 10 games.  They already blew their shot at the #1 pick at the draft, so they might as well hold on to their assets and keep driving for the final spot.  Don't be surprised if they get it.  The Canes finished last season as the hottest team in the league, and I believe they'll do it again.  If they don't make the cut, they'll miss by a hair.

 

Philadelphia (IN) - The Flyers hold a slight edge, as they're currently 2 points ahead of the pack, and the only team remaining with a winning record over the past 10 games.  As always, much depends on their goaltending down the stretch.  Expect their goal-scorers to find their way after a needed two week break.  Jeff Carter may be particularly motivated after missing his chance at an Olympic medal by Getzlaf's ankle.

 

Montreal (OUT) - The Canadiens' season was lost on July 1st of last year.  It's remarkable that they're this close.  Montreal has fewer games remaining than the rest of the pack, which puts them at a big disadvantage.  There may be pressure to make some moves at the deadline, but I don't see any quick fixes to this broken roster.  Maybe next year.

 

BOSTON (OUT) - This time last year, the Bruins were just coming down to earth after their torrid start to the 08-09 season.  It's been downhill ever since.  Contract squabbles, injuries, and cold spells have made the team an after thought in the East.  Even with key players getting healthy recently, the confidence on this squad is low.  Count them out, but just barely.

 

Tampa Bay (OUT) - The Lightning is a hard team to read.  There is reason for hope:  Stamkos is emerging as one of the league's best.  Lecavalier and St. Louis are rested and probably bitter over being snubbed for the Winter Games.  Their hodge-podge defense acquired last summer has had time to come together, and their goaltending has actually been a bright spot for a change.   There's also reason for gloom, mostly stemming from off ice incompetency.  Bottom line is they'll be in the hunt down to the final whistle, but will ultimately fall short.  Watch for the Panthers to play spoiler for their in-state rivals, as their final two matchups are against Florida.

 

NY Rangers (OUT) - If they could just score a goal every once in a while, this team might just have a prayer.  Never has a team so drastically been unfit to play the style of play of their coach.  Torterella loves the high tempo offensive attack, but outside of Gaborik, they don’t have the horses.  Maybe it's time to hand the reigns over to Messier and admit that Glen Sather was better suited for the 80's.

 

Atlanta (IN) - Everything is wacked up in Atlanta this year, so why not pick them to make the playoffs?  The Thrashers have low fan expectations, they've come to expect disappointment.  They've already dealt Kovalchuk, so teams may underestimate their drive.  But Atlanta has the scheduling edge among the bottom feeders.  They have 13 of their remaining 22 contests at home, the most of this bunch.  They still have some talent up front, and Pavalec no longer has to worry about his starting job.  I'm counting them in.

 

So here is my prediction for the Final Standings in the East:

1. Washington

2. Pittsburgh

3. Ottawa

4. New Jersey

5. Buffalo

6. Philadelphia

7. Atlanta

8. Carolina

9. Boston

10. Tampa Bay

11. NY Rangers

12. Montreal

13. Florida

14. NY Islanders

15. Toronto

The Shark Returns

by chewy 26. February 2010 22:13
 

In case you missed us… we're back now.  Landshark hockey experienced some painful server issues over the past couple of months, so we bit the bullet and changed our hosting provider.  The process is now complete, so we are now back and live.  Look for new features and insightful, life-changing commentary in the weeks to come as we prepare for the stretch drive. 

 

Sorry for the downtime.  Better times ahead.

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